Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Avoid the Shallow Hals

When you’re a 28 year-old loser like me who uses 88% of his brain power on fantasy sports, you tend to join multiple leagues every season. Because…well, why the hell not? I crossed the line from casual fantasy owner to Kathy Bates crazy back in 2005 and I haven’t looked back. I’ve been in leagues with best friends, co-workers, classmates, complete strangers, and enemies. And as an owner who consistently shops his players on the market, I’ve negotiated with a lot of fantasy owners. Here are a few of them:

The “grand architects” aka the “deists” aka the “hands-off dads:” These are owners who are knowledgeable and cunning but only at the beginning of the season. They typically draft very well but are either 1) philosophically against making trades, or 2) just not paying attention as much mid-season.

The “bipolars” or “the fickle chicks:” Ask these owners about one of their players after a 40 point night or a seven inning shutout, and you'll hear that they're "untradeable."  Ask about that same player after a bad game or two and all of a sudden that player can be had for Adonal Foyle or Alex Cora.  These owners are constantly changing their personnel. They are very fickle (obviously), and because their feelings towards players fluctuate on a weekly or nightly basis, these owners are the most active.

The “Ari Golds:” These owners always have an elaborate scheme in place already by the time you receive an offer from them. Their offer to you is typically sent with a condition (another owner accepting a different offer or another player coming off the DL in a few days) that must be satisfied before acceptance is appropriate. Accepting a trade from an Ari Gold, sets off a string of events that turns this owner into the most active trader in the league. I love dealing with Ari Golds.

“the Lohans” aka “Rumspringa owners” aka “lost in the ghetto owners:” Take a 13 year old Lindsay Lohan: Cute, sort of a ginger but she’s sweet and wholesome and starring in remakes of old timey family flicks like Parent Trap.
Only she’s 13 years old and she’s in fucking Hollywood where people are absolutely not normal. Of course she’s going to get completely abused and turn into a tragic mess. Of course she’s going to do shitloads of coke and lose a ton of weight and look like a cracked out version of Kate Moss. Actually, that's redundant. In any event, Rumspringa owners (the name I prefer) are wide-eyed and completely vulnerable to manipulation. Everyone loves dealing with these owners.

The "extrapolators:" These owners aren’t keen on the small deal. These owners will take an existing fair/even offer and try to add parts and components to it to see what they can get away with. The extrapolators are smart. They know that the more pieces there are in a trade, the more statistics there are for the other owner to track and compare. These owners also do this to see how much you value other players on your roster...

Which brings me to worst of the bunch: "the Shallow Hals" aka "the Holy Cross freshman"

Shallow Hals aren’t like any of the trade personalities above. A Shallow Hal is absolutely miserable to deal with because of a huge flaw built into the trade negotiation: they severely overvalue their own players.
If you don't remember the movie, Shallow Hal, the premise is that Hal is superficial because he only dates hot chicks (this is where the movie lost me by the way). One day he meets motivational speaker Tony Robins who casts a spell on Hal and all of a sudden Hal is attracted to ugly women who have beautiful hearts. In fact, Hal eventually falls for a 400 pound jungle creature who everyone in the world is disgusted by, but who happens to look like Gwyneth Paltrow to Hal. (No) Comedy ensues...

Anyway, the spell cast upon on Hal is very similar to the fantasy owner who views Bobby Abreu as a top 10 fantasy player, or Ben Gordon as “untradeable.”

These owners look at their roster and all they see are Gwyneth Paltrows.

Over time I’ve learned that these owners are the most difficult owners to deal with. I’ve also learned that the best way to deal with them, is to not deal with them. Why? Because you will never ‘win’ a trade with them.
It's not unlike the 'hot girl theory' for most liberal arts colleges on the east coast. The hottest girl at Dartmouth, Holy Cross, or Providence would be an average looking girl at Arizona State or USC. But by December of your freshman year at Holy Cross, you start talking yourself into certain average girls being “gorgeous." In fantasy, Shallow Hals have effectively talked themselves into the average looking girl on their roster.  So why even bother trading with them?  The only way you can trade for their average looking “Paltrow” is by offering them a really hot USC chick. Which would not be smart - because you'd be downgrading from a hot USC chick to an average looking Holy Cross girl.

The lesson: stay away from Shallow Hals. You cannot win.

Ps- If you're curious, I’m somewhere between a "fickle chick” and an “Ari Gold.”

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