It's Not Exactly Willis Reed...

...but Andrew Bogut has defied the odds and is in the lineup against the Bulls tonight. This is a little worrisome as Bogut has proven himself to be slightly brittle the past few years. Owners might have preferred that he miss another game or two to ensure he is fully healthy. Either way, you gotta get him back in your lineup ASAP.

Stay tuned for news on how this will affect the minutes of Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour and other Bucks who have played well in the Big Aussie's absence.

What Would Lester Freamon Do?

This (also hopefully) will be a bi-weekly (that means every other week, not twice a week, right?) column for people like me who are constantly trolling the waiver wire for goodies. For those of you haven't watched The Wire, I'm sorry for your loss. For those of you who have, you know that Lester Freamon was the king of the wire, i.e. wiretaps. He was constantly following the money and making chicken salad out of chicken shit. We too want to be the king of the wire.

Potential pickups will be separated into two groups. Stringer Bells are the real deal. These are the "real target" as Jimmy McNulty would say. Kintel Williamsons are stay-aways. If you don't recall, Kintel Williamson was the sucker MC that the Major Crimes Unit briefly followed in Season 3 while Avon Barksdale was in jail and bodies weren't being dropped in West Baltimore b/c Stringer and Prop Joe were running the game like a bidness. Here at WWLFD, we are all bidness too.

STRINGER BELLS

Anthony Morrow -GS, SG/SF (49% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Stephen Jackson: traded. Kelena Azubuike: Done for the year. Raja Bell: So miserable he immediately opted for surgery when he found out he was traded to Oaktown. CJ Watson: Swine flu. Seriously. Stephen Curry: Rookie. There's clearly a void at SG for the Warriors who are going to play up-tempo Nellie Ball all year. Anthony Morrow is a mediocre player, but given the uptempo style and the lack of swingmen for the Warriors, he'll put up some numbers. The guy dropped 47 points in the summer league. I know it's the summer league, but still. He's gonna see minutes and he can fill it up when his shot is falling.

Mike Dunleavy- IND, SG/SF (31% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Listen, I know he's an injury risk, but I'm not telling you to draft him the 4th round. Just drop whatever scrub is rotting on your bench and take a flier on the guy. He's supposed to return to action Wednesday. The Pacers aren't exactly loaded with scorers, which is why Dahtany Jones has been scoring so much (we'll get to him later). After Danny Granger, the Pacers have no other options. He'll probably score 15-16 ppg, grab a few boards, put up good %'s and hit 1.5 treys. Far from bad.

Ersan Ilyasova- MIL, SF/PF (20% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Earlier this year, I hyped up Andrew Bogut and Hakim Warrick. That argument was premised on the gaping void that existed in the Bucks' front court. Well, turns out Hakim Warrick is a dog and Bogut just got hurt. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. So, the yawning chasm that is the Bucks' forward spot is still ripe for the taking. He's gotten over 30 MPG in 4 of the last 5 games. In those games he's averaging: 51.7% FG, 78.6% FT, 2.0 3PTM, 15.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.6 TOs. Those are good numbers. The guy was drafted in the second round by the Bucks in the of the 2005 draft, spent a year in the D-League, rode the pine for a year with the Bucks, and then spent two years with AXA FC Barcelona, one of the best teams in Europe. He's seasoned and taking advantage of his playing time, and so should you.

Randy Foye- WAS, PG, SG (44% owned in Yahoo! leagues): I haven't gone back and forth on any player this year more than Foye. On the one hand, I think he has a ton of talent and possible penchant for putting up big fantasy numbers. On the other hand, he's stuck in a backcourt that involves one the most narcissistic ballhogs in the NBA, and apparently the league's first WNBA cross-over. Wait, Mike Miller's not a chick? He should cut that hair. Not to mention the other viable fantasy options on the Wiz (Jamison and Tough Juice) eating into Foye's numbers. Well, Mike Gehrig Miller is shockingly out (sarcasm alert) for 3-6 weeks with a calf injury. Foye will likely fill in as the starting SG from the Wiz in the meantime. Keep an eye on him, and if you have a roster spot, I say stash him and wait for the inevitable ESPN crawl that reads "Gilbert Arenas (hibachi accident) out 2-4 weeks".

KINTEL WILLIAMSONS

Al Thornton- LAC, SF/PF (50% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Al has been seemingly tearing it up, averaging 22.3 points and 5.5 rebounds on 63.5% shooting over the past week. But the guy is Diet Corey Maggette. He's also been averaging 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks, 0.0 3PTM, and 2.3 turnovers. Yikes. Don't be fooled by the gaudy front-end production. First of all, there's no way a guy who shoots 44% from the field for his career keeps this up. Secondly, Eric Gordon is coming back this week and he will certainly eat into Thornton's numbers. What's more, Blake Griffin will be back in 3 weeks or so and then it's bye bye Al. If you were gonna pick him up, you should have done it 10 days ago when Gordon went down. If you haven't pulled the trigger yet, it's best to stay away.

Dahntay Jones- IND, SG/SF (46% owned in Yahoo! leagues): First of all, I object to how he spells his name. I'm not a stickler for that sort of thing. I'd accept Donte, Dantay, Dontay or even Dantae. But that "H" just pisses me off. Anyhow, this guy is going to see a dip in minutes from fellow lame-ass Dukie Mike Dunleavy's return and will come back to earth. If you picked him up and rode this streak, kudos. It's time to get off the train.

Adonal Foyle- ORL, C (0% owned in Yahoo! leagues): With Colgate's most famous alum set to come back from knee surgery soon, I know everybody is chomping at the bit to tap into Adonal's endless potential for padding your stats in "Minutes Spent in Warmups", "Towel Waves" and "Centers Who Look Like a Black Skeletor" categories. I just think this is a down year for Foyle. Sorry guys.

"The delicate choreography of negotiation"

This (hopefully) monthly post is named after a message board post Fake League Blogger Mike wrote in our Vandalay Industries keeper league once.  In defending a low ball offer (probably something along the lines of Nate McLouth for CC Sabathia) Mike explained to us that trade talks are a delicate choreography.

In other words, you don't know what the other owner is looking for - you don't know for sure how frustrated the other owner is with his second round draft pick. Why not send an offer for someone who is underperforming?  Why not send out a few "feelers" and begin the dance that is the back and forth of trade talks?
 
I'm dancing with the owners of:

Caron Butler  - In one of my leagues I recently traded Derrick Rose and Andray Blatche for Butler and Rasheed Wallace.   In another league I drafted Butler - I was publicly shopping him immediately after the draft, but I can't now.  He hasn't exactly been lighting it up and won't command much value in return.  Butler's current rank is somewhere in the 160 range because he's shooting 39% from the floor and he has only 8 assists in 9 games (he had 30 assists by that time last year).  Although Butler's career numbers are better when Jamison and/or Arenas are out, I think he'll turn in another solid season, one similar to his '06 campaign. He just needs to get off the mountain dew wagon again.  So if you drafted him - keep him because if you trade him now, you're getting the worst of him.  If you trade for him, you're getting the best of him.

Russell Westbrook - some owners really wig out when they see a line like the one Westbrook posted on Nov. 11 vs. the Clips:  2 points (1-11), 3 assists, 2 TO's less than a week after he dropped 33 points and 7 assists on the Rockets.  Some owners aren't used to the rotisserie format or simply don't have much patience for a guy who turns the ball over 9 times in a game.  Chances are the guy who owns Russell Westbrook in your league is pissing and moaning over his inconsistency.  In which case, throw out a feeler.  Westbrook is a great source of steals an assists.  If you can deal with the poor shooting percentages and turnovers - the rest of his production in total will be above average for the year.

David West -  Foul trouble has plagued West.  That and the fact that Okafor seems to clean up the glass pretty nicely.  He's also coming off one of the worst games of his career.  So I'm buying low.  I find it hard to believe that a guy who average 20 points a game for two straight seasons all of sudden forgot how to get it done.  I think the rebounds and blocks will take a slight hit but that he'll still post numbers good numbers. Lowball West's owner (I mean initiate the dance).

Stephen Jackson - I wrote about this briefly a few days ago.  Many people believe Jackson's numbers were the product of Golden State's system.  I disagree.  I think he's going to get even more touches in Charlotte than he did in GS.  Why? Because he's the best offensive player the Charlotte Bobcats organization has ever had.  Think about that for a second.  If the Jackson owner in your league is some kind of Hollingerhead and the kind of guy who studies Nellie Ball - take advantage of this person. 


Who am I selling?

Brandon Jennings - Controversial, I know.  I love this guy.  The fact that the Knicks drafted Jordan Hill over him  has taken years off of my life.  I watched his 55 point game the other night on NBAtv. That third quarter was silly. And you know what - he backed up that performance with a 19 point, 8 assist game against the Nets.  I mean, the kid is seriously talented. But it's a long season. Eventually, teams will figure out how to defend him, he'll get fatigued, he'll struggle.  Right now, he can command some serious value. 

Derrick Rose -  As mentioned above, I traded him recently.  A point guard who doesn't shoot threes is a liability on your roster. Moreover, his assist totals have been pretty sub par so what's the point? Why is he a sell-high candidate?  Because oddly, people are fascinated with his potential and don't always understand the difference between real life basketball and fantasy basketball.  I like Rose in real life, but there is too much mediocrity in his fantasy game.  Trade him while this distinction is still lost on people and Rose's name carries weight.

Joakim Noah - He leads the league in boards.  He averages 12 points a game when he can't score any other way but dunking. He's ranked 26 overall.  He's playing 34 minutes a night. He has sex romps on the beach in St. Bart's.  The guy is on a roll. I have even forgiven him for making poor Bill Raftery feel uncomfortable by borderline humping Raftery's leg after winning the NCAA championship (video below):

I don't see how he keeps this up over the course of a full season, especially when Ty Thomas returns.  The minutes decrease, the boards should go down.  Trade him while he looks more like Moses Malone and less like Reggie Evans

Trevor Ariza - He is one of the leaders of 3PTMs and he fills the stat sheet.  Tons of steals. A good amount of assists. Above average scoring.  But he has probably done a number on your FG% which, unless you have an Amare or a Howard on your roster, has destroyed your chances at finishing at the top of the league.  He's what I call a "poison pill" - seek out a team that is doing well with percentages, trade Ariza to that guy, and watch that team plummet in the standings.

"The League" Is Surprisingly Funny. Just Not Why You Would Think.

I've been watching that show on FX, "The League," because it's on after "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" (the funniest show since "Arrested Development" was canned) and I'm chronically lazy. I figured I'd give it a shot....it's a show that's based on dudes who are in a fantasy league together, one of them's a lawyer, this show should be up my alley, right? Right. But it's not funny because it's about fantasy sports. It's funny because it's well-written.

Thing is, the fantasy jokes are contrived and forced. It seems like they're partially just a vehicle for cameos (Terry Bradshaw, Antonio Gates) or an attempt to loosely tie the show to the title. All the references seem out of place and detract (and distract) from what are otherwise solid comedic plots.

They're also just not believable. I'm supposed to believe that guys who base their lives on fantasy sports don't know that Keyshawn Johnson is retired or that Plaxico Burress is in jail? Why would a football league only have 5 guys (shouldn't there at least be 3 guys who are friends of friends who no one knows like real fantasy leagues and why is their an odd number in a head-to-head league)? Does anyone think it's not OK to be in more that one league at a time? These are all real occurrences on the show, and it sort of ruins it.

The show is actually very, very entertaining. The actors have a good rapport. The writing is really good, and they regularly nail pithy one-line putdowns that feel true-to-life. As any Bud Light commercial will tell you, guys LOVE ripping on each other. "The League" does a great job of capturing this dynamic with the homoerotic jokes and good-natured ribbing that dudes constantly engage in. Strangely enough, I hope the show moves away from the fantasy sports crutch and just focuses on the characters. I never thought I'd say this, but when I watch "The League," I actually want less fantasy sports in my life.

Pau returns to his "night job"

Only two days after his acting debut and one day after his coach panned his performance, Gasol announced it was time to return to nba action. According to the team's official site, he will be active tomorrow evening against the Bulls - so get him in your lineups.
 

Trade talkin'

By now it's old news that the Bobcats sent Raja Bell and Vladmir Radmonasomething packing for Stephen Jackson and a Caesar Salad.  You have to feel for Raja Bell.  Dude was a poor man's Joe Johnson in Phoenix.  Then it all spiraled out of control after Kobe clowned him back in the '06 playoffs:  injuries, poor shooting, a trade to the Bobcats, more injuries.  Bell is a hardworker- a blue collar basketball player - a good defender and solid character. Unfortunately, he's exactly what the Warriors need and he was shipped off to the most chaotic clubhouse in the nba. 

But really the news here is Stephen Jackson. Jackson is crazy enough to pull something off in Charlotte.  Larry Brown is the perfect coach for him (he's a straight-shooter).  And Jackson is (for all his faults) a warrior good soldier on the basketball court.  I'm predicting that the team rallies around the guy, and I see the Bobcats gelling at some point in January and making a halfway decent playoff push until they realize they're the Bobcats.  That's how good I feel about this trade for Charlotte.

My advice is, if you own Jackson keep him around. He didn't shoot well last night but he played 45 minutes and filled the stat sheet evenly. Raja Bell is droppable as is Vladamir Radmansandwich.

Note: I also think this trade is good for Gerald Wallace owners as the scoring load is no longer entirely on him - percentages will rise.

**UPDATE** Raja Bell is so thrilled to be with Golden State that he has decided to undergo wrist surgery which will keep him off the court for a minimum 6 weeks.

Mike D'Antoni and the Fantasy Factory - an Ode

Maybe in 2004 you got a golden ticket.  A golden ticket would have been any of these names on your fantasy squad:  Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion, or Amare Stoudemire - The stars of “Seven Seconds or Less (1^st edition).” 

And if those guys were golden tickets, what would that make Mike D’Antoni?  Why, Willy Wonka himself of course.  "Who can make a Lee look like Moses Malone? Who can make a Duhon look like he can hold his own?  D’Antoni.  D’Antoni man can."  (sang to the tune of 'candy man.'  eh? eh?  no? okay....)

The reason I am writing this post today is because around this time 5 years ago, it became apparent that something special was brewing in Phoenix.

It began with Amare.  After an 8-2 start to the season, Amare was clearly showing he was making “the leap.” He averaged 28.7 ppg in those first 10 games on 58% shooting.  Early Amare was a good scorer but still very raw.  The 2004 edition of Amare was making free throws, fall-aways, and dunking on everyone.

Then we started seeing Nash drop ridiculous assist numbers.   Nash, at the time, was 30 years old and an eight year veteran.  He had a career average of 5.9 assists per season.  Then, all of a sudden, in November of 2004:  17 assists vs. the Cavs, 18 assists vs. his former Dallas teammates, another 18 assists a few days later vs. the Clips.  Unreal.  He went on to average 11.5 assists per game that season.  Um…only about 5.5 assists more than his 8 year career average. If Nash played baseball you'd be screaming “Steeeeerrrrooiiidddsss” – only, basketball players don’t do steroids...(gulp)

Then Quentin Richardson.  The eye-opener was 8 three pointers in a 37 point effort vs. Portland in early December.  I remember what surprised me even more than that game was the 13 threes he shot against the Lakers 3 nights later en route to a horrific 6-19 performance.  I remember thinking, “wow this guy is going to jack up 800 3-pointers this year and Mike D’Antoni is totally encouraging it.”  Q-Rich wasn’t that good of a 3 point shooter (he shot 35%), and he still averaged 2.9 threes made per game, finishing the year with 226 (tied with Ashton Kutcher for the league lead).

But you know who was a very good three point shooter?  Joe Johnson.  Just like Amare, Joey J was an up-and-comer in 2004.  The year before he had averaged a solid 16.7 points and a trey per game.  However, 2004 Johnson was confident and it showed.  He contributed in the big three categories (points, rebounds, assists) averaging 17.1 points, 5.2 Rebs (great for a shooting guard), and 3.6 assists. More importantly, he knocked in 2.2 treys per game at a 47% clip.  Only a few guys do this well (today: Jason Terry, Jason Richardson).  But for the most part, your three point shooters drag down your shooting percentages and don't contribute in other areas.  Joe Johnson scored in bunches, rebounded well, and dished out assists while shooting 46% from the floor. That is solid.

 

So by December, we had 1) a definite assists leader candidate, 2) a scoring machine with incredible FG percentages who made opposing centers shit themselves, 3) a clear favorite for 3 pointers made and all-time single season attempts leader, and 4) an all around contributor who was an efficient three point specialist and could score 17 a game. 

And I haven’t even gotten to the guy who ranked number 1 in fantasy that year: Mr. Matrix Marion. One of my longtime fantasy covets, Marion was(and still is) a silent contributor in every single category.  Shall we?

2004-2005:

FG      FT        3ptm   Ppg     Reb.   Ast.   Stl.    Blk    TO

47.6% 83.3%   1.4     19.4    11.3    1.9    2.0   1.5    1.5

The numbers don't really jump out at you...if you're blind.  How many players in the past five years have finished a season with an average of 10 boards, 1 steal, 1 block, and a three per game?  One: Matrix. He did it twice. No one else is even close. I’d take 2004 Marion over Lebron James or Chris Paul now.  No question.

Some may argue that 2005-2006 Phoenix was as good if not better. Marion had another stellar year.  Nash saw a spike in points and a few more games played.  Diaw was superb.  And if you were like me and drafted Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa hoping they would become the next Johnson/Richardson, you were pleasantly surprised.  But in '05-'06 the roster was deeper which is good for real life but bad for fantasy.  There were the Eddie House's, the Tim Thomas' and the James Jones' who were stealing minutes and stats from the main fantasy contributors.
The '04 starting five did everything for that team because the roster was thin (so there were plenty of stats to share) and they were all healthy for the most part: Joe Johnson (82 games), Shawn Marion (81 games), Amare Stoudemire (80 games), Quentin Richardson (79 games) and Steve Nash (75).  Also, fantasy stats aside, Amare, Joey J, and Q-Rich were really something else with the way they jacked up shots and poured in points.  Diaw, Bell, and Barbosa could go stretches where they looked like Leonardo DiCaprio playing basketball on heroin.

By 2005, Amare was nursing a knee, Joe Johnson was an All-Star in Atlanta, and Q-Rich was beginning his new career as a bouncer for the traveling NY Jerry Springer Knickerbocker show. It was the end of an era (sorta). We continue to follow Willy Wonka to the Fantasy Factory but we only got one year with the original five.

When they were together they were the greatest Fantasy Factory of all time.

Musings and Ponderings

Just a few quick hitters:

1) I feel like I've read this somewhere else because I can't be the first one to notice this, but can't remember reading it before.....but, with the big homeless guy beard, doesn't Randy Moss look like a skinny Kimbo Slice now? (Note: the picture below was taken in early October)

2) You know how every single NFL helmet is made by Riddell? And it's been that way for as long as you can remember? Do you ever remember seeing a) any other product made by Riddell, or b) any Riddell commercials? That's seems a little odd. I mean, the exclusive manufacturer of the most prominent piece of equipment in the most prominent sport in the country isn't looking to branch out? Maybe they have stuff all over the place and I don't know it. Or maybe they make shit that's much less visible like shoulder pads, goalposts and cheerleader pasties. Just sort of hit me tonight that it's bizarre not to Riddell gear anywhere else.

Fantasy Football is Stupid. There. I Said It.

Ryan Moats. Ryan Fucking Moats. Last week, I had to start Ryan Moats at RB because he was my best available option. Thanks, Steve Slaton (pictured above fumbling and boofing me at the same time). And guess what? Moats actually performed pretty well, and was my most productive RB for the week. That, in a nutshell, is why fantasy football is stupid.

Now, you could argue that I'm a crappy fantasy football owner if Ryan Moats is my best option at RB on a given week. And you'd be right. I have never done well in fantasy football leagues. I don't have a team I root for (I'm a Knicks and Yankees fan), I never played the game at any level, and I grew up in a place (Westchester County, NY) where the closest decent college football team was probably 5 hours away. So, I just don't care that much about football, don't know as much about it, and don't do my homework with the same gusto as other sports.

That doesn't mean that fantasy football is not a drastically inferior fantasy product. At their core, fantasy sports are great because it allows a bunch of dudes to determine who knows the most about a given sport in a given year based on statistical output. If you win, you can talk shit. In fact, you can talk shit to anyone you finish above because you outsmarted that particular person. The further we stray from that formula the worse the game becomes. So, why does football suck? Three reasons: 1) Injuries, 2) Head-to-to head scoring, and 3) the secretary at your office probably has a fantasy football team. All of these factors create randomness and impurity in the system that makes it difficult to figure out who has the smartiest pants.

The first is obviously a problem with all sports. However, in baseball or basketball, the injuries tend to be recurring, tend to be the same types of injuries, and tend to happen to the same guys year in and year out. Elton Brand will get hurt. Kevin Martin will get hurt. Rich Harden should never be drafted under any circumstances. We know these things. We understand these things. We can draft accordingly. Football is totally random. There are twenty-two 250+ pound men acting as human missiles every time the ball is snapped. Every single player is a candidate to have a life-altering injury on every single play. Often, when it happens, he won't even see it coming. When it does, fantasy owners are left scrambling. Eventually, Samkon Gado becomes a legitimate fantasy player even though nobody had ever heard of him before week 7.

This almost never happens in basketball, where the universe of ownable players is limited to about 300 guys. Maybe some of these guys will be more or less valuable as the season wears on because of an injury to somebody in front of them. But rarely, if ever, does a player who nobody has ever heard of before in their life get catapulted into a position where he can have a fantasy impact just because of an injury.

Head-to-head scoring is stupid too. If you use this for your basketball or baseball league, you're a wanker. Period. The idea is to create the most balanced team that performs the best over the course of the whole season. Fantasy championships shouldn't be decided because the Colts are 12-1 or because the Cardinals play in a joke of a division. The team that scores the most points, measured by important statistical categories like yards and TDs, should never miss the playoffs. But this happens all the time. More often than not, the best team in a head-to-head league doesn't win the title. What's the point in that? Again, it defeats the underlying point of fantasy sports, which is to prove you're smarter than your friends.

The last point might makes me seem like a misogynist. It's not that the secretary at work plays fantasy football, it's that too many random people who don't give two shits about sports play fantasy football. This is an entropy machine for fantasy purposes. Absentee owners and clueless owners affect the competitive balance in a league. Once a year, these people draft players from their favorite teams in nonsensical places, get duped into a stupid trade, leave injured players in their lineup or drop a signficant chip in Week 1 because they don't know what they're doing. Somebody else benefits, and the whole system is ruined.

If it weren't for the fact that fantasy football keeps me in touch with some buddies from college I wouldn't otherwise talk to, I would have quit 3 years ago. And that's why fantasy football is inferior. It's a social phenomenon or cultural fad made for water cooler talk and The Yahoo! Smack Talk Message Board brought to you by Diet Dr. Pepper more than anything; it's not for the hard-core dorkatoligists like me. I learned to live without slap bracelets and Urkel, and I'm pretty sure I could do without fantasy football. Then maybe I could use my brain power on something other than Ryan Moats.

The Contract year theory

Erick Dampier has recently put together a nice string of games for the Cuban Mavericks leading to some inevitable adds in my fantasy leagues, and prompting me to ask my girlfriend:

 “Is Erick Dampier in a contract year?” 

She responded “no, he’s signed through 2011, Sean. Can I get you another beer to help you wash down those wings I made for you?  You really shouldn’t get up from the couch, otherwise you may miss another irreverent quip by Wes from the Ruins.” 

Of course, she didn’t really say that – in reality, she pretended not to hear me as I soliloquized for 20 minutes about Dampier’s ridiculous 2003-2004 campaign where he averaged 12 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks a game for the Golden State Warriors.  In my opinion it was one of the more egregious “I need me some money so I’m going to actually try this year” seasons.  Look, don’t hate the player, hate the game.  Erick Dampier is no dummy – he is a man, he is a player, he is a humanitarian. He is also in hundreds of pictures like the one above.

For some guys money is the necessary/driving incentive to play to their potential.  Bill Simmons’ recent book “The Book of Basketball” quotes   Holy Cross legend Tommy Heinsohn’s take on the issue:

I’ve seen this happen so many times …It’s not just the length of the contract that hurts, it’s the length of the guaranteed lifestyle.  Unless you’re talking about athletes who are truly dedicated to the game, the only time these guys bear down is when their security is threatened.

In fact, Simmons cites Dampier's 2003-2004 year as a textbook contract run.  Dampier was not the first and will not be the last to produce a statistical anomaly in a contract year.  As a result, a “contract year theory” has developed for fantasy drafting.  But does it work?

In the last five years, I have drafted a number of players a little bit ahead of their ADP because they were in a contract year.  Some turned out well, some didn’t.  See if you can spot the one’s that did not:

            Peja Stojakovic            2005 – 2006

            Andruw Jones              2007               

            Morris Peterson           2006 - 2007 

            Emeka Okafor             2007 – 2008

            Mark Teixeira              2008

           

Last year Shawn Marion turned in one of the more disappointing contract year seasons in recent memory.

Two years ago Baron Davis played 82 games in a contract year.  82 games!  Baron Davis!  What!?  Yup.  Look it up on espn or just google “historical oddities.”

So what do we make of all this? 

The contract year theory is an appealing concept.  But it’s like communism – nice in theory, but how can we fully embrace it when capitalism is so much better for screwing people over?  Really, the contract year theory is just not reliable.

To state the obvious, the contract year theory works for some players, doesn’t work for others. Unless you know the player personally and know that he is using the off season to work out like a mad man and shows up to camp ready to dominate, there is no way to predict success.

So the next time you hear some one say something like “Dude I’m totally high on Travis Outlaw this year!  He’s in a contract year!” you should laugh at him.  He’s basically saying “I have a system for playing roulette that works every time.”

But seriously … I like McGrady this year … he’s in a contract year.           

Where am I?

Are we seriously living in a world where JJ Redick is fantasy relevant?  After the former Dukie whiteboy  standout** played decently off the bench for the first two games of the season, Ron Jeremy inserted reDICK into the starting lineup (Read the last part of that sentence again - I had a blast writing it).  Redick has responded by averaging 16.5 PPG, 3+3PM, and 3 APG.  Not bad. I'll admit that his recent success means I am eating crow. However, don't get too excited. Rashard Lewis' return is imminent and Redick's reign will most likely end shortly after Lewis gets his legs.  I also think Lewis' return affects Ryan Anderson, but I have a hunch that Anderson will still get minutes and produce 3PMs

**Not to be confused with Christian Laettner, Cherokee Parks, Steve Wojciechowski, Bobby Hurley, Josh McRoberts, Danny Ferry, Shavlick Randolph, Mike Dunleavy, Greg Paulus, or Jon Scheyer a year from now.

PS -- High five to the guy holding the "ly gay" sign.  Tremendous work. Really, outstanding.

LBJ is a Super-Massive Fantasy Blackhole

To say that LeBron, arguably the world's greatest player, is a blackhole does not mean that he isn't talented and won't put up sick numbers. It only means that he is so massive that he sucks in all the talent that goes anywhere near him (even Shaq's fat ass, apparently...they should have had a "Shaq Versus" where he went up against a treadmill set to an 11-minute mile; he would have lost). The team is so dependent on James getting his, that the second and third wheels on the Cavs are not going to be fantasy forces. People seem to love Mo Williams and Anthony Parker and the like, but history shows that members of the Cavs backcourt rarely moonlight as meaningful fantasy contrubtors in any category other than 3PTM. This makes sense when you watch the Cavs play. LeBron seems to be constantly going one-on-four and Mike Brown's offense consists of the following three plays: 1) LeBron drives and either dunks on someone's face, humiliating them forever, or is fouled, where he inexplicably bricks one of his FTs, 2) LeBron takes a step-back 3, or 3) LeBron drives, sucks the defense to him and hits a teammate for an open 3. Here's a look at the Cavs' non-James leaders since the 2004-2005 season.

2004-2005
POINTS: Big Z, 16.9 PPG, 31st in the league
REBOUNDS: Drew Gooden, 9.2 RPG, 13th in the league

ASSISTS: Jeff McInnis, 5.1 APG, 23rd in the league

STEALS: Nobody in the top 50

BLOCKS: Big Z, 2.12 BPG, 8th in the league

2005-2006
POINTS: Big Z, 15.6 PPG, 46th in the league
REBOUNDS: Drew Gooden, 8.4 RPG, 18th in the league
ASSISTS: Eric Snow, 4.2 APG, 37th in the league
STEALS: Nobody in the top 50
BLOCKS: Big Z, 1.74 BPG, 16th in the league

2006-2007
POINTS: Larry Hughes, 14.9 PPG, 49th in the league
REBOUNDS: Drew Gooden, 8.5 RPG, 15th in the league
ASSISTS: Eric Snow, 4.0 APG, 37th in the league
STEALS: Larry Hughes, 1.27 SPG, 25th in the league
BLOCKS: Big Z, 1.26 BPG, 25th in the league

2007-2008
POINTS: Nobody in the top 50
REBOUNDS: Ben Wallace, 9.3 RPG, 16th in the league
ASSISTS: Nobody in the top 50
STEALS: Ben Wallace, 1.22 SPG, 33rd in the league
BLOCKS: Big Z, 1.64 BPG, 13th in the league

2008-2009

POINTS: Mo Williams, 17.8 PPG, 32nd in the league
REBOUNDS: Anderson Varejao, 7.2 RPG, 31st in the league
ASSISTS: Mo Williams, 4.1 APG, 40th in the league
STEALS: Nobody in the top 50
BLOCKS: Anderson Varejao, 0.81 BPG, 38th in the league.

Note: Big Z only played 65 games last year.

Nobody who has played either Guard spot for the Cavs has been in the top 25 in any cumulative category, other than Larry Hughes (25th in steals) and Jeff McInnis (!!!!!). Jesus. The only players who seem to have any discernible impact are rebounding specialists with limited offensive games like Ben Wallace, Drew Gooden, and Anderson Varejao and my former mainest man, Big Z. However, Big Z's numbers have been slipping in recent seasons. Last year, he did a lot of what Mo Williams and Delonte West did: sit outside and knock down open jumpers. Even more disconcerting, the Cavs have Shaq now, so Ilgauskas is getting limited minutes as a back-up Center.

So, I'd say avoid the Cavs like the plague if you don't have LeBron. Sure, Mo will get some points and hit some 3's, but that's it. He won't get steals, he won't get many assists. Shaq was drafted after Roy Hibbert in one draft I did, and nobody batted an eye. He's old, looks fat, will probably not play much in back-to-backs, might take 20 games off in January and February, and is currently averaging 9.0 PPG and only 24.8 MPG. 'Nuf said. You're better off looking to crappy teams with a bunch of gunners like the Grizzlies or the Clippers if you want to go anywhere in your fantasy league. The Cavs have the best player in the world and will likely go deep in the playoffs, but they make for a shitty fantasy team.