Turd Sandwich player of the Month

Mike and I were huge Turd Sandwiches in December/January. Our less-than-stellar analysis goes missing for weeks at a time.  And ultimately, that's not fair our bored at work/class readership.

But even our pathetic blogging efforts have been leaps and bounds more consistent than turd-king Peja Stojakovic and his turdalific display in late December.  Peja has looked like Larry Bird on heroin in his last 7 or 8 games, and has frustrated fantasy owners to the point that he is only 64% owned.  Yeah, a guy who averages 2 threes per game is getting mass dropped.

But why should Stojakovic get the TSPOM award over, say McGrady, Devin Harris, Charlie Villanueva, or Elton Brand (for a second consecutive month)? 

 Well, for one, this picture.  And two:  December, 29, 2009. On that glorious evening, Peja had 4 rebounds in 30 minutes of action...and THATS ALL! Peja scored 0 points on 0-4 shooting.  Of course I had him in my starting lineup that night.  Thanks for showing up Peja.  Nevermind the fact that Villanueva had,  not one but, two ugly zero point games in late December.  I own Peja.  And I will never forgive him for dropping that mammoth sized turd in my team game log.

Peja Stojakovic is your Turd Sandwich Player of the Month for December.

Anthony Randolph

Don Nelson inserted young 'dolph into the starting lineup tonight against the New Orleans Hornets.
His line:
                          Min    FG     FT    Reb  Ast TO  Stl  BS   Pts
A. Randolph     36:02   5-14   2-2   8       2     1     2   8     12

Although he's almost universally owned, I think he may be turning a corner.  If you need blocks and you need them fast, Anthony Randolph is your guy.  You should now begin harrassing Randolph's owner.

Avoid the Shallow Hals

When you’re a 28 year-old loser like me who uses 88% of his brain power on fantasy sports, you tend to join multiple leagues every season. Because…well, why the hell not? I crossed the line from casual fantasy owner to Kathy Bates crazy back in 2005 and I haven’t looked back. I’ve been in leagues with best friends, co-workers, classmates, complete strangers, and enemies. And as an owner who consistently shops his players on the market, I’ve negotiated with a lot of fantasy owners. Here are a few of them:

The “grand architects” aka the “deists” aka the “hands-off dads:” These are owners who are knowledgeable and cunning but only at the beginning of the season. They typically draft very well but are either 1) philosophically against making trades, or 2) just not paying attention as much mid-season.

The “bipolars” or “the fickle chicks:” Ask these owners about one of their players after a 40 point night or a seven inning shutout, and you'll hear that they're "untradeable."  Ask about that same player after a bad game or two and all of a sudden that player can be had for Adonal Foyle or Alex Cora.  These owners are constantly changing their personnel. They are very fickle (obviously), and because their feelings towards players fluctuate on a weekly or nightly basis, these owners are the most active.

The “Ari Golds:” These owners always have an elaborate scheme in place already by the time you receive an offer from them. Their offer to you is typically sent with a condition (another owner accepting a different offer or another player coming off the DL in a few days) that must be satisfied before acceptance is appropriate. Accepting a trade from an Ari Gold, sets off a string of events that turns this owner into the most active trader in the league. I love dealing with Ari Golds.

“the Lohans” aka “Rumspringa owners” aka “lost in the ghetto owners:” Take a 13 year old Lindsay Lohan: Cute, sort of a ginger but she’s sweet and wholesome and starring in remakes of old timey family flicks like Parent Trap.

Only she’s 13 years old and she’s in fucking Hollywood where people are absolutely not normal. Of course she’s going to get completely abused and turn into a tragic mess. Of course she’s going to do shitloads of coke and lose a ton of weight and look like a cracked out version of Kate Moss. Actually, that's redundant. In any event, Rumspringa owners (the name I prefer) are wide-eyed and completely vulnerable to manipulation. Everyone loves dealing with these owners.

The "extrapolators:" These owners aren’t keen on the small deal. These owners will take an existing fair/even offer and try to add parts and components to it to see what they can get away with. The extrapolators are smart. They know that the more pieces there are in a trade, the more statistics there are for the other owner to track and compare. These owners also do this to see how much you value other players on your roster...

Which brings me to worst of the bunch: "the Shallow Hals" aka "the Holy Cross freshman"

Shallow Hals aren’t like any of the trade personalities above. A Shallow Hal is absolutely miserable to deal with because of a huge flaw built into the trade negotiation: they severely overvalue their own players.
If you don't remember the movie, Shallow Hal, the premise is that Hal is superficial because he only dates hot chicks (this is where the movie lost me by the way). One day he meets motivational speaker Tony Robins who casts a spell on Hal and all of a sudden Hal is attracted to ugly women who have beautiful hearts. In fact, Hal eventually falls for a 400 pound jungle creature who everyone in the world is disgusted by, but who happens to look like Gwyneth Paltrow to Hal. (No) Comedy ensues...

Anyway, the spell cast upon on Hal is very similar to the fantasy owner who views Bobby Abreu as a top 10 fantasy player, or Ben Gordon as “untradeable.”

These owners look at their roster and all they see are Gwyneth Paltrows.

Over time I’ve learned that these owners are the most difficult owners to deal with. I’ve also learned that the best way to deal with them, is to not deal with them. Why? Because you will never ‘win’ a trade with them.
It's not unlike the 'hot girl theory' for most liberal arts colleges on the east coast. The hottest girl at Dartmouth, Holy Cross, or Providence would be an average looking girl at Arizona State or USC. But by December of your freshman year at Holy Cross, you start talking yourself into certain average girls being “gorgeous." In fantasy, Shallow Hals have effectively talked themselves into the average looking girl on their roster.  So why even bother trading with them?  The only way you can trade for their average looking “Paltrow” is by offering them a really hot USC chick. Which would not be smart - because you'd be downgrading from a hot USC chick to an average looking Holy Cross girl.

The lesson: stay away from Shallow Hals. You cannot win.

Ps- If you're curious, I’m somewhere between a "fickle chick” and an “Ari Gold.”

Snatch Up Tyrus Thomas

This is a mini-version of What Would Lester Freamon Do. Apparently, Tyrus Thomas (pictured above dunking what seems to be a phantom sperm) was cleared to practice today after breaking his arm in a freak weight-lifting accident. He should be back to game action in a week. Seemingly, a lot of owners have given up on the guy, as he is owned in only 40% of Yahoo! leagues. It's no secret that the Bulls are shopping Thomas pretty hard because rookie Taj Gibson has been effective and Chicago is desperate for low-post scoring (and to clear space for the Summer of LeBron, like every team in the NBA). Expect to see a Ty Thomas Showcase when he's finally healthy. This bodes well for big minutes and production commensurate with that playing time. If he's available, take a flier on the guy.

Sean Was Right. I Was Wrong.

After a trade sent Stephen Jackson and his insane, spectator-pummeling ass to Charlotte, Sean wrote a post opining that Jackson's numbers would not take a dip at all from the trade. This was against all conventional wisdom, and I thought it was borderline retarded at the time. He was pummeled in the comments section (to the extent anyone can be pummeled in a blog read only by your friends). Turns out, I could not have been more wrong if I thought evolution wasn't real.

Jackson's Numbers in Golden State?

42% FG, 70.3% FT, 1.2 3PTM, 16.6 pts, 3.9 rebs, 4.7 ast, 1.6 st, 0.7 blks, 2.9 TOs

Jackson's Numbers in Charlotte?

39% FG, 75.3% FT, 1.3 3PTM, 19.7 pts, 4.9 rebs, 3.4 ast, 1.6 st, 0.3 blks, 3.3 TOs

There's some variation in the numbers, but for the most part S Jax picked up right where he left off in Golden State.

I think the oddest part is that he has actually helped the fantasy values of all the players around him. As Sean noted in his Delicate Choreography post, Raymond Felton has turned into an uncharacteristically efficient fantasy option. I guess only one player per backcourt can hoist up bad shots with the shot-clock running down and turn the ball over. Even Gerald Wallace, who is normally a roto beast, has turned up both his efficiency AND prolificacy (channeling Walt "Clyde" Frazier) in the past month, posting 20.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game on almost 52% from the field to go along with his usual Tremendous Backend Production.

Apologies to Larry Bird, but perhaps Stephen Jackson is the true Basketball Jesus. He has come back from the dead to absolve the Bobcats of their fantasy transgressions and be their shepherd into the Kingdom of Efficiency. Or not.

delicate choreography

Thanks Mike for that extreme closeup of James Posey's face.

Players I'm making moves for:
Amar'e Stoudemire PHO:  Amar'e was slow out of the box so some owners may be frustrated.  Although his average rank is somewhere in the 70 range, he's been turning it on of late: two 28 point efforts against top notch bigs Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan.  Of course, sandwiched between those two performances was a 7 turnover effort against the shortest team in the league: DEN.  But hey, I like what I'm seeing regardless.

Carl Landry HOU:  If you need to raise your percentages, you better get moving.  There comes a time (January ish) where it's too late. Let me introduce you to Carl Landry pictured to the left dunking on former Knick Bricklayer Quentin Richardson.  Because he's under the radar I still consider him a buy low candidate. His percentages are terrific (57%; 87%) He also rebounded quickly from getting shot in the leg less than a year ago which ranks slightly below Paul Pierce's recovery from 11 stab wounds on the all-time injury recoveries.  Right now Landry is like David West with less rebounding. 

Raymond Felton CHA:  Finger point to Mike on this one.  In the last month he's shooting 51% from the field which is very unFelton like. And his turnovers are way down - frankly I think there simply are not enough turnovers to go around when you have Stephen Jackson on your team.  Assists are still pretty good and 2.5 steals a game makes him a hot commodity.

Rashard Lewis ORL:  Once again he's averaging 2+ 3PM's but his scoring is down and he's not meshing with Ron Jeremy. I don't know much about the situation but I do know that tension started brewing when Lewis refused to go into a game against Utah.  Um, refusing to enter a game is a slap in the face to your coach and teammates.  I think this will blow over (He dropped 5 triples on the Raptors last night).

Al Jefferson MIN: He's was a beast for two straight seasons. This year has been difficult for him as his percentages are down across the board and he's rebounding less and blocking less shots.  He's also visibly slower because of the knee.  However, the rebounding has picked up in December and he's scoring more.

Devin Harris NJ:  This is about as bad as it gets for Harris owners, right?  I own him in one league and as a result I've been more moody than a 13 year old girl whose parents won't let her see Twilight New Moon in the theatres with her friends.  Take last night for example:  1-9, 9 points?  Seriously, I reacted to last night's line like Bill O'Reilly trying to read something on a teleprompter that he doesn't understand.  What's wrong with you Devin?  I'm concerned about you as a person.  And I'd probably ship you out for Chase Budinger at this point.  The point is everybody, Harris owners are wounded and vulnerable right now.

The Lemons I'm pitching:
Rodney Stuckey DET:  Hot Rodney just won Eastern Conference player of the week, but I don't really like him as a fantasy player. His FG% is kinda frustrating and he doesn't even shoot threes.  His turnovers are also way high.  Sell him to someone who needs scoring (ie: Danny Granger owners).

Channing Frye PHO:  He had a nice start to the year but he has kinda faded into a one trick pony in December.  Sure, his numbers have been very impressive for the year.  But December has been a dreadful month.  He's averaging 10 ppg, 45% FG, 65%, and 2.1 3ptm in December.  Meh - sell him while he still has a solid rank for the year.


Danilo Gallinari NY & Andrea Bargnani TOR: See above.  One trick ponies. Danilo still gets the triples but he's shooting only 42% from the field with 11.5 points and 5 boards per game in Dec. and I heard he recently changed his nickname from "el gallo" to "the situation."  not a good sign.  His overrall rank is still 32.  Bargnani has year rank of 28 and a December of 103. His triples are down as are his points. If you've gotten ahead on threes because of one of these guys, you may consider trading for a more rounded fantasy player.


Anthony Morrow GS: Another finger point to Mike who has been following Morrow's season so closely that he can tell you "Morrow looks sad out there. He's still grieving from a death in his family." That's a legitimate theory, but it's more likely that he's in a shooting slump after missing a few games and losing his rhythm.  I still like him and frankly you can make a case for him being a buy low candidate right now.  But he's coming off the bench now.  Sell him to someone who needs threes with high percentages.

I remember James Posey. He was a Roto-Ho....For Shooooouure

Well, I think that Sean and I can officially give ourselves the Turd Sandwich Bloggers of the Month Award, since it's been almost two weeks between posts. Anywho....

Recently, in our roto league (known as the Aaron League...the H2H league is the Angus League), Paul Millsap was picked up by his 4th team in this young season. It got me thinking about how every year, in every league, in every sport, there is that one guy who will be the 141st guy in a league with 140 roster spots (10 teams X 14 roster positions). That guy needs a name. I think that he should be called the Roto-Ho. Sean likes Fantasy Slut, but there is almost divine certainty that if I'm overheard in a bar calling someone a Fantasy Slut, I'll get kneed in the grundle. I'm willing to take suggestions for other snappy names from our devoted readership of two (shout-out to Earl and Lonn).

There are clearly certain types of players who tend to be Roto-Hoes. Three-point specialists, marginal centers, speedy-but-light-hitting OFs, and set-up men whose teams have shaky closers tend to get felt up by several fantasy owners every year.

What I wonder is whether there a few players who are Roto-Ho staples among all competitive leagues every year, or whether it varies from league to league. Obviously it will vary with the number of teams in the league, scoring system and the size of rosters. But controlling for those variables, will it always include the same guys? For instance, is Paul Millsap the Roto-Ho for all 11 team roto leagues across the country? I don't know.

Past Roto-Hoes include: James Posey, DJ Augustin, Rafael Soriano, Joel Zumaya/Fernando Rodney (when they inexplicably were setting up for Todd "Big Train" Jones), Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik and Erick Dampier. Oddly, Erick Dampier is setting up to be turned out to trick in fantasy leagues again this year. Of course, if he gets another 70 million dollar contract out of it, I might start hitchhiking across the country and blowing fantasy owners myself.

Turd Sandwich Player of the Month

This just in:  The Turd Sandwich Player of the Month for the month of November is Elton Brand.

Good for you, Elton.  You can now add the TSPOM award to your long list of accolades:  '02 & '06 All-Star, '99 Rookie of the Year, '08 Free Agent Dick move of the Year, and All-NBA Uncharismatic team '99-'08. The only player I can recall being more uncharismatic than Elton Brand in the last 20 years is Brad Dougherty.  Tim Duncan is close, but at least he has that "NBA's biggest pot head" rumor giving him some flair. Put it this way:  if you don't have a nickname, you're boring.

And now this:  Turd Sandwhich Player of the Month.  Even after the crap he pulled last year (first round pick -29 GP,13ppg, 8reb, 44%fg), Elton's reputation from his years with the Clips gave him an ADP of 35th overrall this year.  Since draft day he has rewarded his owners with 12ppg, 6reb, 45%fg.  Thank god he can still pull off games like the 3 games from Nov. 18-21 (averaging 19ppg, 10 rebs, 3blks), otherwise he'd have a rank of 356 sandwiched somewhere between Kevin Ollie (355) and Patrick O'Bryant (357). 

Can he turn it around?  I think so.  He's struggling with a nagging hammy strain, so it may take some time. I'm not exactly sure what kind of impact Iverson will have on Brand.  Maybe AI's intensity will rub off on Brand who looks like a corpse some nights at the Wachovia Center.  I'll be in attendance for Iverson's homecoming, so I'll take some notes.  Maybe we'll have a different turd sandwich for December.

It's Not Exactly Willis Reed...

...but Andrew Bogut has defied the odds and is in the lineup against the Bulls tonight. This is a little worrisome as Bogut has proven himself to be slightly brittle the past few years. Owners might have preferred that he miss another game or two to ensure he is fully healthy. Either way, you gotta get him back in your lineup ASAP.

Stay tuned for news on how this will affect the minutes of Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour and other Bucks who have played well in the Big Aussie's absence.

What Would Lester Freamon Do?

This (also hopefully) will be a bi-weekly (that means every other week, not twice a week, right?) column for people like me who are constantly trolling the waiver wire for goodies. For those of you haven't watched The Wire, I'm sorry for your loss. For those of you who have, you know that Lester Freamon was the king of the wire, i.e. wiretaps. He was constantly following the money and making chicken salad out of chicken shit. We too want to be the king of the wire.

Potential pickups will be separated into two groups. Stringer Bells are the real deal. These are the "real target" as Jimmy McNulty would say. Kintel Williamsons are stay-aways. If you don't recall, Kintel Williamson was the sucker MC that the Major Crimes Unit briefly followed in Season 3 while Avon Barksdale was in jail and bodies weren't being dropped in West Baltimore b/c Stringer and Prop Joe were running the game like a bidness. Here at WWLFD, we are all bidness too.

STRINGER BELLS

Anthony Morrow -GS, SG/SF (49% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Stephen Jackson: traded. Kelena Azubuike: Done for the year. Raja Bell: So miserable he immediately opted for surgery when he found out he was traded to Oaktown. CJ Watson: Swine flu. Seriously. Stephen Curry: Rookie. There's clearly a void at SG for the Warriors who are going to play up-tempo Nellie Ball all year. Anthony Morrow is a mediocre player, but given the uptempo style and the lack of swingmen for the Warriors, he'll put up some numbers. The guy dropped 47 points in the summer league. I know it's the summer league, but still. He's gonna see minutes and he can fill it up when his shot is falling.

Mike Dunleavy- IND, SG/SF (31% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Listen, I know he's an injury risk, but I'm not telling you to draft him the 4th round. Just drop whatever scrub is rotting on your bench and take a flier on the guy. He's supposed to return to action Wednesday. The Pacers aren't exactly loaded with scorers, which is why Dahtany Jones has been scoring so much (we'll get to him later). After Danny Granger, the Pacers have no other options. He'll probably score 15-16 ppg, grab a few boards, put up good %'s and hit 1.5 treys. Far from bad.

Ersan Ilyasova- MIL, SF/PF (20% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Earlier this year, I hyped up Andrew Bogut and Hakim Warrick. That argument was premised on the gaping void that existed in the Bucks' front court. Well, turns out Hakim Warrick is a dog and Bogut just got hurt. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. So, the yawning chasm that is the Bucks' forward spot is still ripe for the taking. He's gotten over 30 MPG in 4 of the last 5 games. In those games he's averaging: 51.7% FG, 78.6% FT, 2.0 3PTM, 15.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.6 TOs. Those are good numbers. The guy was drafted in the second round by the Bucks in the of the 2005 draft, spent a year in the D-League, rode the pine for a year with the Bucks, and then spent two years with AXA FC Barcelona, one of the best teams in Europe. He's seasoned and taking advantage of his playing time, and so should you.

Randy Foye- WAS, PG, SG (44% owned in Yahoo! leagues): I haven't gone back and forth on any player this year more than Foye. On the one hand, I think he has a ton of talent and possible penchant for putting up big fantasy numbers. On the other hand, he's stuck in a backcourt that involves one the most narcissistic ballhogs in the NBA, and apparently the league's first WNBA cross-over. Wait, Mike Miller's not a chick? He should cut that hair. Not to mention the other viable fantasy options on the Wiz (Jamison and Tough Juice) eating into Foye's numbers. Well, Mike Gehrig Miller is shockingly out (sarcasm alert) for 3-6 weeks with a calf injury. Foye will likely fill in as the starting SG from the Wiz in the meantime. Keep an eye on him, and if you have a roster spot, I say stash him and wait for the inevitable ESPN crawl that reads "Gilbert Arenas (hibachi accident) out 2-4 weeks".

KINTEL WILLIAMSONS

Al Thornton- LAC, SF/PF (50% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Al has been seemingly tearing it up, averaging 22.3 points and 5.5 rebounds on 63.5% shooting over the past week. But the guy is Diet Corey Maggette. He's also been averaging 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks, 0.0 3PTM, and 2.3 turnovers. Yikes. Don't be fooled by the gaudy front-end production. First of all, there's no way a guy who shoots 44% from the field for his career keeps this up. Secondly, Eric Gordon is coming back this week and he will certainly eat into Thornton's numbers. What's more, Blake Griffin will be back in 3 weeks or so and then it's bye bye Al. If you were gonna pick him up, you should have done it 10 days ago when Gordon went down. If you haven't pulled the trigger yet, it's best to stay away.

Dahntay Jones- IND, SG/SF (46% owned in Yahoo! leagues): First of all, I object to how he spells his name. I'm not a stickler for that sort of thing. I'd accept Donte, Dantay, Dontay or even Dantae. But that "H" just pisses me off. Anyhow, this guy is going to see a dip in minutes from fellow lame-ass Dukie Mike Dunleavy's return and will come back to earth. If you picked him up and rode this streak, kudos. It's time to get off the train.

Adonal Foyle- ORL, C (0% owned in Yahoo! leagues): With Colgate's most famous alum set to come back from knee surgery soon, I know everybody is chomping at the bit to tap into Adonal's endless potential for padding your stats in "Minutes Spent in Warmups", "Towel Waves" and "Centers Who Look Like a Black Skeletor" categories. I just think this is a down year for Foyle. Sorry guys.