Anthony Randolph

Don Nelson inserted young 'dolph into the starting lineup tonight against the New Orleans Hornets.
His line:
                          Min    FG     FT    Reb  Ast TO  Stl  BS   Pts
A. Randolph     36:02   5-14   2-2   8       2     1     2   8     12

Although he's almost universally owned, I think he may be turning a corner.  If you need blocks and you need them fast, Anthony Randolph is your guy.  You should now begin harrassing Randolph's owner.

Avoid the Shallow Hals

When you’re a 28 year-old loser like me who uses 88% of his brain power on fantasy sports, you tend to join multiple leagues every season. Because…well, why the hell not? I crossed the line from casual fantasy owner to Kathy Bates crazy back in 2005 and I haven’t looked back. I’ve been in leagues with best friends, co-workers, classmates, complete strangers, and enemies. And as an owner who consistently shops his players on the market, I’ve negotiated with a lot of fantasy owners. Here are a few of them:

The “grand architects” aka the “deists” aka the “hands-off dads:” These are owners who are knowledgeable and cunning but only at the beginning of the season. They typically draft very well but are either 1) philosophically against making trades, or 2) just not paying attention as much mid-season.

The “bipolars” or “the fickle chicks:” Ask these owners about one of their players after a 40 point night or a seven inning shutout, and you'll hear that they're "untradeable."  Ask about that same player after a bad game or two and all of a sudden that player can be had for Adonal Foyle or Alex Cora.  These owners are constantly changing their personnel. They are very fickle (obviously), and because their feelings towards players fluctuate on a weekly or nightly basis, these owners are the most active.

The “Ari Golds:” These owners always have an elaborate scheme in place already by the time you receive an offer from them. Their offer to you is typically sent with a condition (another owner accepting a different offer or another player coming off the DL in a few days) that must be satisfied before acceptance is appropriate. Accepting a trade from an Ari Gold, sets off a string of events that turns this owner into the most active trader in the league. I love dealing with Ari Golds.

“the Lohans” aka “Rumspringa owners” aka “lost in the ghetto owners:” Take a 13 year old Lindsay Lohan: Cute, sort of a ginger but she’s sweet and wholesome and starring in remakes of old timey family flicks like Parent Trap.

Only she’s 13 years old and she’s in fucking Hollywood where people are absolutely not normal. Of course she’s going to get completely abused and turn into a tragic mess. Of course she’s going to do shitloads of coke and lose a ton of weight and look like a cracked out version of Kate Moss. Actually, that's redundant. In any event, Rumspringa owners (the name I prefer) are wide-eyed and completely vulnerable to manipulation. Everyone loves dealing with these owners.

The "extrapolators:" These owners aren’t keen on the small deal. These owners will take an existing fair/even offer and try to add parts and components to it to see what they can get away with. The extrapolators are smart. They know that the more pieces there are in a trade, the more statistics there are for the other owner to track and compare. These owners also do this to see how much you value other players on your roster...

Which brings me to worst of the bunch: "the Shallow Hals" aka "the Holy Cross freshman"

Shallow Hals aren’t like any of the trade personalities above. A Shallow Hal is absolutely miserable to deal with because of a huge flaw built into the trade negotiation: they severely overvalue their own players.
If you don't remember the movie, Shallow Hal, the premise is that Hal is superficial because he only dates hot chicks (this is where the movie lost me by the way). One day he meets motivational speaker Tony Robins who casts a spell on Hal and all of a sudden Hal is attracted to ugly women who have beautiful hearts. In fact, Hal eventually falls for a 400 pound jungle creature who everyone in the world is disgusted by, but who happens to look like Gwyneth Paltrow to Hal. (No) Comedy ensues...

Anyway, the spell cast upon on Hal is very similar to the fantasy owner who views Bobby Abreu as a top 10 fantasy player, or Ben Gordon as “untradeable.”

These owners look at their roster and all they see are Gwyneth Paltrows.

Over time I’ve learned that these owners are the most difficult owners to deal with. I’ve also learned that the best way to deal with them, is to not deal with them. Why? Because you will never ‘win’ a trade with them.
It's not unlike the 'hot girl theory' for most liberal arts colleges on the east coast. The hottest girl at Dartmouth, Holy Cross, or Providence would be an average looking girl at Arizona State or USC. But by December of your freshman year at Holy Cross, you start talking yourself into certain average girls being “gorgeous." In fantasy, Shallow Hals have effectively talked themselves into the average looking girl on their roster.  So why even bother trading with them?  The only way you can trade for their average looking “Paltrow” is by offering them a really hot USC chick. Which would not be smart - because you'd be downgrading from a hot USC chick to an average looking Holy Cross girl.

The lesson: stay away from Shallow Hals. You cannot win.

Ps- If you're curious, I’m somewhere between a "fickle chick” and an “Ari Gold.”

Snatch Up Tyrus Thomas

This is a mini-version of What Would Lester Freamon Do. Apparently, Tyrus Thomas (pictured above dunking what seems to be a phantom sperm) was cleared to practice today after breaking his arm in a freak weight-lifting accident. He should be back to game action in a week. Seemingly, a lot of owners have given up on the guy, as he is owned in only 40% of Yahoo! leagues. It's no secret that the Bulls are shopping Thomas pretty hard because rookie Taj Gibson has been effective and Chicago is desperate for low-post scoring (and to clear space for the Summer of LeBron, like every team in the NBA). Expect to see a Ty Thomas Showcase when he's finally healthy. This bodes well for big minutes and production commensurate with that playing time. If he's available, take a flier on the guy.

Sean Was Right. I Was Wrong.

After a trade sent Stephen Jackson and his insane, spectator-pummeling ass to Charlotte, Sean wrote a post opining that Jackson's numbers would not take a dip at all from the trade. This was against all conventional wisdom, and I thought it was borderline retarded at the time. He was pummeled in the comments section (to the extent anyone can be pummeled in a blog read only by your friends). Turns out, I could not have been more wrong if I thought evolution wasn't real.

Jackson's Numbers in Golden State?

42% FG, 70.3% FT, 1.2 3PTM, 16.6 pts, 3.9 rebs, 4.7 ast, 1.6 st, 0.7 blks, 2.9 TOs

Jackson's Numbers in Charlotte?

39% FG, 75.3% FT, 1.3 3PTM, 19.7 pts, 4.9 rebs, 3.4 ast, 1.6 st, 0.3 blks, 3.3 TOs

There's some variation in the numbers, but for the most part S Jax picked up right where he left off in Golden State.

I think the oddest part is that he has actually helped the fantasy values of all the players around him. As Sean noted in his Delicate Choreography post, Raymond Felton has turned into an uncharacteristically efficient fantasy option. I guess only one player per backcourt can hoist up bad shots with the shot-clock running down and turn the ball over. Even Gerald Wallace, who is normally a roto beast, has turned up both his efficiency AND prolificacy (channeling Walt "Clyde" Frazier) in the past month, posting 20.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game on almost 52% from the field to go along with his usual Tremendous Backend Production.

Apologies to Larry Bird, but perhaps Stephen Jackson is the true Basketball Jesus. He has come back from the dead to absolve the Bobcats of their fantasy transgressions and be their shepherd into the Kingdom of Efficiency. Or not.

delicate choreography

Thanks Mike for that extreme closeup of James Posey's face.

Players I'm making moves for:
Amar'e Stoudemire PHO:  Amar'e was slow out of the box so some owners may be frustrated.  Although his average rank is somewhere in the 70 range, he's been turning it on of late: two 28 point efforts against top notch bigs Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan.  Of course, sandwiched between those two performances was a 7 turnover effort against the shortest team in the league: DEN.  But hey, I like what I'm seeing regardless.

Carl Landry HOU:  If you need to raise your percentages, you better get moving.  There comes a time (January ish) where it's too late. Let me introduce you to Carl Landry pictured to the left dunking on former Knick Bricklayer Quentin Richardson.  Because he's under the radar I still consider him a buy low candidate. His percentages are terrific (57%; 87%) He also rebounded quickly from getting shot in the leg less than a year ago which ranks slightly below Paul Pierce's recovery from 11 stab wounds on the all-time injury recoveries.  Right now Landry is like David West with less rebounding. 

Raymond Felton CHA:  Finger point to Mike on this one.  In the last month he's shooting 51% from the field which is very unFelton like. And his turnovers are way down - frankly I think there simply are not enough turnovers to go around when you have Stephen Jackson on your team.  Assists are still pretty good and 2.5 steals a game makes him a hot commodity.

Rashard Lewis ORL:  Once again he's averaging 2+ 3PM's but his scoring is down and he's not meshing with Ron Jeremy. I don't know much about the situation but I do know that tension started brewing when Lewis refused to go into a game against Utah.  Um, refusing to enter a game is a slap in the face to your coach and teammates.  I think this will blow over (He dropped 5 triples on the Raptors last night).

Al Jefferson MIN: He's was a beast for two straight seasons. This year has been difficult for him as his percentages are down across the board and he's rebounding less and blocking less shots.  He's also visibly slower because of the knee.  However, the rebounding has picked up in December and he's scoring more.

Devin Harris NJ:  This is about as bad as it gets for Harris owners, right?  I own him in one league and as a result I've been more moody than a 13 year old girl whose parents won't let her see Twilight New Moon in the theatres with her friends.  Take last night for example:  1-9, 9 points?  Seriously, I reacted to last night's line like Bill O'Reilly trying to read something on a teleprompter that he doesn't understand.  What's wrong with you Devin?  I'm concerned about you as a person.  And I'd probably ship you out for Chase Budinger at this point.  The point is everybody, Harris owners are wounded and vulnerable right now.

The Lemons I'm pitching:
Rodney Stuckey DET:  Hot Rodney just won Eastern Conference player of the week, but I don't really like him as a fantasy player. His FG% is kinda frustrating and he doesn't even shoot threes.  His turnovers are also way high.  Sell him to someone who needs scoring (ie: Danny Granger owners).

Channing Frye PHO:  He had a nice start to the year but he has kinda faded into a one trick pony in December.  Sure, his numbers have been very impressive for the year.  But December has been a dreadful month.  He's averaging 10 ppg, 45% FG, 65%, and 2.1 3ptm in December.  Meh - sell him while he still has a solid rank for the year.


Danilo Gallinari NY & Andrea Bargnani TOR: See above.  One trick ponies. Danilo still gets the triples but he's shooting only 42% from the field with 11.5 points and 5 boards per game in Dec. and I heard he recently changed his nickname from "el gallo" to "the situation."  not a good sign.  His overrall rank is still 32.  Bargnani has year rank of 28 and a December of 103. His triples are down as are his points. If you've gotten ahead on threes because of one of these guys, you may consider trading for a more rounded fantasy player.


Anthony Morrow GS: Another finger point to Mike who has been following Morrow's season so closely that he can tell you "Morrow looks sad out there. He's still grieving from a death in his family." That's a legitimate theory, but it's more likely that he's in a shooting slump after missing a few games and losing his rhythm.  I still like him and frankly you can make a case for him being a buy low candidate right now.  But he's coming off the bench now.  Sell him to someone who needs threes with high percentages.

I remember James Posey. He was a Roto-Ho....For Shooooouure

Well, I think that Sean and I can officially give ourselves the Turd Sandwich Bloggers of the Month Award, since it's been almost two weeks between posts. Anywho....

Recently, in our roto league (known as the Aaron League...the H2H league is the Angus League), Paul Millsap was picked up by his 4th team in this young season. It got me thinking about how every year, in every league, in every sport, there is that one guy who will be the 141st guy in a league with 140 roster spots (10 teams X 14 roster positions). That guy needs a name. I think that he should be called the Roto-Ho. Sean likes Fantasy Slut, but there is almost divine certainty that if I'm overheard in a bar calling someone a Fantasy Slut, I'll get kneed in the grundle. I'm willing to take suggestions for other snappy names from our devoted readership of two (shout-out to Earl and Lonn).

There are clearly certain types of players who tend to be Roto-Hoes. Three-point specialists, marginal centers, speedy-but-light-hitting OFs, and set-up men whose teams have shaky closers tend to get felt up by several fantasy owners every year.

What I wonder is whether there a few players who are Roto-Ho staples among all competitive leagues every year, or whether it varies from league to league. Obviously it will vary with the number of teams in the league, scoring system and the size of rosters. But controlling for those variables, will it always include the same guys? For instance, is Paul Millsap the Roto-Ho for all 11 team roto leagues across the country? I don't know.

Past Roto-Hoes include: James Posey, DJ Augustin, Rafael Soriano, Joel Zumaya/Fernando Rodney (when they inexplicably were setting up for Todd "Big Train" Jones), Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik and Erick Dampier. Oddly, Erick Dampier is setting up to be turned out to trick in fantasy leagues again this year. Of course, if he gets another 70 million dollar contract out of it, I might start hitchhiking across the country and blowing fantasy owners myself.

Turd Sandwich Player of the Month

This just in:  The Turd Sandwich Player of the Month for the month of November is Elton Brand.

Good for you, Elton.  You can now add the TSPOM award to your long list of accolades:  '02 & '06 All-Star, '99 Rookie of the Year, '08 Free Agent Dick move of the Year, and All-NBA Uncharismatic team '99-'08. The only player I can recall being more uncharismatic than Elton Brand in the last 20 years is Brad Dougherty.  Tim Duncan is close, but at least he has that "NBA's biggest pot head" rumor giving him some flair. Put it this way:  if you don't have a nickname, you're boring.

And now this:  Turd Sandwhich Player of the Month.  Even after the crap he pulled last year (first round pick -29 GP,13ppg, 8reb, 44%fg), Elton's reputation from his years with the Clips gave him an ADP of 35th overrall this year.  Since draft day he has rewarded his owners with 12ppg, 6reb, 45%fg.  Thank god he can still pull off games like the 3 games from Nov. 18-21 (averaging 19ppg, 10 rebs, 3blks), otherwise he'd have a rank of 356 sandwiched somewhere between Kevin Ollie (355) and Patrick O'Bryant (357). 

Can he turn it around?  I think so.  He's struggling with a nagging hammy strain, so it may take some time. I'm not exactly sure what kind of impact Iverson will have on Brand.  Maybe AI's intensity will rub off on Brand who looks like a corpse some nights at the Wachovia Center.  I'll be in attendance for Iverson's homecoming, so I'll take some notes.  Maybe we'll have a different turd sandwich for December.

It's Not Exactly Willis Reed...

...but Andrew Bogut has defied the odds and is in the lineup against the Bulls tonight. This is a little worrisome as Bogut has proven himself to be slightly brittle the past few years. Owners might have preferred that he miss another game or two to ensure he is fully healthy. Either way, you gotta get him back in your lineup ASAP.

Stay tuned for news on how this will affect the minutes of Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour and other Bucks who have played well in the Big Aussie's absence.

What Would Lester Freamon Do?

This (also hopefully) will be a bi-weekly (that means every other week, not twice a week, right?) column for people like me who are constantly trolling the waiver wire for goodies. For those of you haven't watched The Wire, I'm sorry for your loss. For those of you who have, you know that Lester Freamon was the king of the wire, i.e. wiretaps. He was constantly following the money and making chicken salad out of chicken shit. We too want to be the king of the wire.

Potential pickups will be separated into two groups. Stringer Bells are the real deal. These are the "real target" as Jimmy McNulty would say. Kintel Williamsons are stay-aways. If you don't recall, Kintel Williamson was the sucker MC that the Major Crimes Unit briefly followed in Season 3 while Avon Barksdale was in jail and bodies weren't being dropped in West Baltimore b/c Stringer and Prop Joe were running the game like a bidness. Here at WWLFD, we are all bidness too.

STRINGER BELLS

Anthony Morrow -GS, SG/SF (49% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Stephen Jackson: traded. Kelena Azubuike: Done for the year. Raja Bell: So miserable he immediately opted for surgery when he found out he was traded to Oaktown. CJ Watson: Swine flu. Seriously. Stephen Curry: Rookie. There's clearly a void at SG for the Warriors who are going to play up-tempo Nellie Ball all year. Anthony Morrow is a mediocre player, but given the uptempo style and the lack of swingmen for the Warriors, he'll put up some numbers. The guy dropped 47 points in the summer league. I know it's the summer league, but still. He's gonna see minutes and he can fill it up when his shot is falling.

Mike Dunleavy- IND, SG/SF (31% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Listen, I know he's an injury risk, but I'm not telling you to draft him the 4th round. Just drop whatever scrub is rotting on your bench and take a flier on the guy. He's supposed to return to action Wednesday. The Pacers aren't exactly loaded with scorers, which is why Dahtany Jones has been scoring so much (we'll get to him later). After Danny Granger, the Pacers have no other options. He'll probably score 15-16 ppg, grab a few boards, put up good %'s and hit 1.5 treys. Far from bad.

Ersan Ilyasova- MIL, SF/PF (20% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Earlier this year, I hyped up Andrew Bogut and Hakim Warrick. That argument was premised on the gaping void that existed in the Bucks' front court. Well, turns out Hakim Warrick is a dog and Bogut just got hurt. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. So, the yawning chasm that is the Bucks' forward spot is still ripe for the taking. He's gotten over 30 MPG in 4 of the last 5 games. In those games he's averaging: 51.7% FG, 78.6% FT, 2.0 3PTM, 15.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.6 TOs. Those are good numbers. The guy was drafted in the second round by the Bucks in the of the 2005 draft, spent a year in the D-League, rode the pine for a year with the Bucks, and then spent two years with AXA FC Barcelona, one of the best teams in Europe. He's seasoned and taking advantage of his playing time, and so should you.

Randy Foye- WAS, PG, SG (44% owned in Yahoo! leagues): I haven't gone back and forth on any player this year more than Foye. On the one hand, I think he has a ton of talent and possible penchant for putting up big fantasy numbers. On the other hand, he's stuck in a backcourt that involves one the most narcissistic ballhogs in the NBA, and apparently the league's first WNBA cross-over. Wait, Mike Miller's not a chick? He should cut that hair. Not to mention the other viable fantasy options on the Wiz (Jamison and Tough Juice) eating into Foye's numbers. Well, Mike Gehrig Miller is shockingly out (sarcasm alert) for 3-6 weeks with a calf injury. Foye will likely fill in as the starting SG from the Wiz in the meantime. Keep an eye on him, and if you have a roster spot, I say stash him and wait for the inevitable ESPN crawl that reads "Gilbert Arenas (hibachi accident) out 2-4 weeks".

KINTEL WILLIAMSONS

Al Thornton- LAC, SF/PF (50% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Al has been seemingly tearing it up, averaging 22.3 points and 5.5 rebounds on 63.5% shooting over the past week. But the guy is Diet Corey Maggette. He's also been averaging 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks, 0.0 3PTM, and 2.3 turnovers. Yikes. Don't be fooled by the gaudy front-end production. First of all, there's no way a guy who shoots 44% from the field for his career keeps this up. Secondly, Eric Gordon is coming back this week and he will certainly eat into Thornton's numbers. What's more, Blake Griffin will be back in 3 weeks or so and then it's bye bye Al. If you were gonna pick him up, you should have done it 10 days ago when Gordon went down. If you haven't pulled the trigger yet, it's best to stay away.

Dahntay Jones- IND, SG/SF (46% owned in Yahoo! leagues): First of all, I object to how he spells his name. I'm not a stickler for that sort of thing. I'd accept Donte, Dantay, Dontay or even Dantae. But that "H" just pisses me off. Anyhow, this guy is going to see a dip in minutes from fellow lame-ass Dukie Mike Dunleavy's return and will come back to earth. If you picked him up and rode this streak, kudos. It's time to get off the train.

Adonal Foyle- ORL, C (0% owned in Yahoo! leagues): With Colgate's most famous alum set to come back from knee surgery soon, I know everybody is chomping at the bit to tap into Adonal's endless potential for padding your stats in "Minutes Spent in Warmups", "Towel Waves" and "Centers Who Look Like a Black Skeletor" categories. I just think this is a down year for Foyle. Sorry guys.

"The delicate choreography of negotiation"

This (hopefully) monthly post is named after a message board post Fake League Blogger Mike wrote in our Vandalay Industries keeper league once.  In defending a low ball offer (probably something along the lines of Nate McLouth for CC Sabathia) Mike explained to us that trade talks are a delicate choreography.

In other words, you don't know what the other owner is looking for - you don't know for sure how frustrated the other owner is with his second round draft pick. Why not send an offer for someone who is underperforming?  Why not send out a few "feelers" and begin the dance that is the back and forth of trade talks?
 
I'm dancing with the owners of:

Caron Butler  - In one of my leagues I recently traded Derrick Rose and Andray Blatche for Butler and Rasheed Wallace.   In another league I drafted Butler - I was publicly shopping him immediately after the draft, but I can't now.  He hasn't exactly been lighting it up and won't command much value in return.  Butler's current rank is somewhere in the 160 range because he's shooting 39% from the floor and he has only 8 assists in 9 games (he had 30 assists by that time last year).  Although Butler's career numbers are better when Jamison and/or Arenas are out, I think he'll turn in another solid season, one similar to his '06 campaign. He just needs to get off the mountain dew wagon again.  So if you drafted him - keep him because if you trade him now, you're getting the worst of him.  If you trade for him, you're getting the best of him.

Russell Westbrook - some owners really wig out when they see a line like the one Westbrook posted on Nov. 11 vs. the Clips:  2 points (1-11), 3 assists, 2 TO's less than a week after he dropped 33 points and 7 assists on the Rockets.  Some owners aren't used to the rotisserie format or simply don't have much patience for a guy who turns the ball over 9 times in a game.  Chances are the guy who owns Russell Westbrook in your league is pissing and moaning over his inconsistency.  In which case, throw out a feeler.  Westbrook is a great source of steals an assists.  If you can deal with the poor shooting percentages and turnovers - the rest of his production in total will be above average for the year.

David West -  Foul trouble has plagued West.  That and the fact that Okafor seems to clean up the glass pretty nicely.  He's also coming off one of the worst games of his career.  So I'm buying low.  I find it hard to believe that a guy who average 20 points a game for two straight seasons all of sudden forgot how to get it done.  I think the rebounds and blocks will take a slight hit but that he'll still post numbers good numbers. Lowball West's owner (I mean initiate the dance).

Stephen Jackson - I wrote about this briefly a few days ago.  Many people believe Jackson's numbers were the product of Golden State's system.  I disagree.  I think he's going to get even more touches in Charlotte than he did in GS.  Why? Because he's the best offensive player the Charlotte Bobcats organization has ever had.  Think about that for a second.  If the Jackson owner in your league is some kind of Hollingerhead and the kind of guy who studies Nellie Ball - take advantage of this person. 


Who am I selling?

Brandon Jennings - Controversial, I know.  I love this guy.  The fact that the Knicks drafted Jordan Hill over him  has taken years off of my life.  I watched his 55 point game the other night on NBAtv. That third quarter was silly. And you know what - he backed up that performance with a 19 point, 8 assist game against the Nets.  I mean, the kid is seriously talented. But it's a long season. Eventually, teams will figure out how to defend him, he'll get fatigued, he'll struggle.  Right now, he can command some serious value. 

Derrick Rose -  As mentioned above, I traded him recently.  A point guard who doesn't shoot threes is a liability on your roster. Moreover, his assist totals have been pretty sub par so what's the point? Why is he a sell-high candidate?  Because oddly, people are fascinated with his potential and don't always understand the difference between real life basketball and fantasy basketball.  I like Rose in real life, but there is too much mediocrity in his fantasy game.  Trade him while this distinction is still lost on people and Rose's name carries weight.

Joakim Noah - He leads the league in boards.  He averages 12 points a game when he can't score any other way but dunking. He's ranked 26 overall.  He's playing 34 minutes a night. He has sex romps on the beach in St. Bart's.  The guy is on a roll. I have even forgiven him for making poor Bill Raftery feel uncomfortable by borderline humping Raftery's leg after winning the NCAA championship (video below):

I don't see how he keeps this up over the course of a full season, especially when Ty Thomas returns.  The minutes decrease, the boards should go down.  Trade him while he looks more like Moses Malone and less like Reggie Evans

Trevor Ariza - He is one of the leaders of 3PTMs and he fills the stat sheet.  Tons of steals. A good amount of assists. Above average scoring.  But he has probably done a number on your FG% which, unless you have an Amare or a Howard on your roster, has destroyed your chances at finishing at the top of the league.  He's what I call a "poison pill" - seek out a team that is doing well with percentages, trade Ariza to that guy, and watch that team plummet in the standings.

"The League" Is Surprisingly Funny. Just Not Why You Would Think.

I've been watching that show on FX, "The League," because it's on after "It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia" (the funniest show since "Arrested Development" was canned) and I'm chronically lazy. I figured I'd give it a shot....it's a show that's based on dudes who are in a fantasy league together, one of them's a lawyer, this show should be up my alley, right? Right. But it's not funny because it's about fantasy sports. It's funny because it's well-written.

Thing is, the fantasy jokes are contrived and forced. It seems like they're partially just a vehicle for cameos (Terry Bradshaw, Antonio Gates) or an attempt to loosely tie the show to the title. All the references seem out of place and detract (and distract) from what are otherwise solid comedic plots.

They're also just not believable. I'm supposed to believe that guys who base their lives on fantasy sports don't know that Keyshawn Johnson is retired or that Plaxico Burress is in jail? Why would a football league only have 5 guys (shouldn't there at least be 3 guys who are friends of friends who no one knows like real fantasy leagues and why is their an odd number in a head-to-head league)? Does anyone think it's not OK to be in more that one league at a time? These are all real occurrences on the show, and it sort of ruins it.

The show is actually very, very entertaining. The actors have a good rapport. The writing is really good, and they regularly nail pithy one-line putdowns that feel true-to-life. As any Bud Light commercial will tell you, guys LOVE ripping on each other. "The League" does a great job of capturing this dynamic with the homoerotic jokes and good-natured ribbing that dudes constantly engage in. Strangely enough, I hope the show moves away from the fantasy sports crutch and just focuses on the characters. I never thought I'd say this, but when I watch "The League," I actually want less fantasy sports in my life.

Pau returns to his "night job"

Only two days after his acting debut and one day after his coach panned his performance, Gasol announced it was time to return to nba action. According to the team's official site, he will be active tomorrow evening against the Bulls - so get him in your lineups.
 

Trade talkin'

By now it's old news that the Bobcats sent Raja Bell and Vladmir Radmonasomething packing for Stephen Jackson and a Caesar Salad.  You have to feel for Raja Bell.  Dude was a poor man's Joe Johnson in Phoenix.  Then it all spiraled out of control after Kobe clowned him back in the '06 playoffs:  injuries, poor shooting, a trade to the Bobcats, more injuries.  Bell is a hardworker- a blue collar basketball player - a good defender and solid character. Unfortunately, he's exactly what the Warriors need and he was shipped off to the most chaotic clubhouse in the nba. 

But really the news here is Stephen Jackson. Jackson is crazy enough to pull something off in Charlotte.  Larry Brown is the perfect coach for him (he's a straight-shooter).  And Jackson is (for all his faults) a warrior good soldier on the basketball court.  I'm predicting that the team rallies around the guy, and I see the Bobcats gelling at some point in January and making a halfway decent playoff push until they realize they're the Bobcats.  That's how good I feel about this trade for Charlotte.

My advice is, if you own Jackson keep him around. He didn't shoot well last night but he played 45 minutes and filled the stat sheet evenly. Raja Bell is droppable as is Vladamir Radmansandwich.

Note: I also think this trade is good for Gerald Wallace owners as the scoring load is no longer entirely on him - percentages will rise.

**UPDATE** Raja Bell is so thrilled to be with Golden State that he has decided to undergo wrist surgery which will keep him off the court for a minimum 6 weeks.

Mike D'Antoni and the Fantasy Factory - an Ode

Maybe in 2004 you got a golden ticket.  A golden ticket would have been any of these names on your fantasy squad:  Steve Nash, Quentin Richardson, Joe Johnson, Shawn Marion, or Amare Stoudemire - The stars of “Seven Seconds or Less (1^st edition).” 

And if those guys were golden tickets, what would that make Mike D’Antoni?  Why, Willy Wonka himself of course.  "Who can make a Lee look like Moses Malone? Who can make a Duhon look like he can hold his own?  D’Antoni.  D’Antoni man can."  (sang to the tune of 'candy man.'  eh? eh?  no? okay....)

The reason I am writing this post today is because around this time 5 years ago, it became apparent that something special was brewing in Phoenix.

It began with Amare.  After an 8-2 start to the season, Amare was clearly showing he was making “the leap.” He averaged 28.7 ppg in those first 10 games on 58% shooting.  Early Amare was a good scorer but still very raw.  The 2004 edition of Amare was making free throws, fall-aways, and dunking on everyone.

Then we started seeing Nash drop ridiculous assist numbers.   Nash, at the time, was 30 years old and an eight year veteran.  He had a career average of 5.9 assists per season.  Then, all of a sudden, in November of 2004:  17 assists vs. the Cavs, 18 assists vs. his former Dallas teammates, another 18 assists a few days later vs. the Clips.  Unreal.  He went on to average 11.5 assists per game that season.  Um…only about 5.5 assists more than his 8 year career average. If Nash played baseball you'd be screaming “Steeeeerrrrooiiidddsss” – only, basketball players don’t do steroids...(gulp)

Then Quentin Richardson.  The eye-opener was 8 three pointers in a 37 point effort vs. Portland in early December.  I remember what surprised me even more than that game was the 13 threes he shot against the Lakers 3 nights later en route to a horrific 6-19 performance.  I remember thinking, “wow this guy is going to jack up 800 3-pointers this year and Mike D’Antoni is totally encouraging it.”  Q-Rich wasn’t that good of a 3 point shooter (he shot 35%), and he still averaged 2.9 threes made per game, finishing the year with 226 (tied with Ashton Kutcher for the league lead).

But you know who was a very good three point shooter?  Joe Johnson.  Just like Amare, Joey J was an up-and-comer in 2004.  The year before he had averaged a solid 16.7 points and a trey per game.  However, 2004 Johnson was confident and it showed.  He contributed in the big three categories (points, rebounds, assists) averaging 17.1 points, 5.2 Rebs (great for a shooting guard), and 3.6 assists. More importantly, he knocked in 2.2 treys per game at a 47% clip.  Only a few guys do this well (today: Jason Terry, Jason Richardson).  But for the most part, your three point shooters drag down your shooting percentages and don't contribute in other areas.  Joe Johnson scored in bunches, rebounded well, and dished out assists while shooting 46% from the floor. That is solid.

 

So by December, we had 1) a definite assists leader candidate, 2) a scoring machine with incredible FG percentages who made opposing centers shit themselves, 3) a clear favorite for 3 pointers made and all-time single season attempts leader, and 4) an all around contributor who was an efficient three point specialist and could score 17 a game. 

And I haven’t even gotten to the guy who ranked number 1 in fantasy that year: Mr. Matrix Marion. One of my longtime fantasy covets, Marion was(and still is) a silent contributor in every single category.  Shall we?

2004-2005:

FG      FT        3ptm   Ppg     Reb.   Ast.   Stl.    Blk    TO

47.6% 83.3%   1.4     19.4    11.3    1.9    2.0   1.5    1.5

The numbers don't really jump out at you...if you're blind.  How many players in the past five years have finished a season with an average of 10 boards, 1 steal, 1 block, and a three per game?  One: Matrix. He did it twice. No one else is even close. I’d take 2004 Marion over Lebron James or Chris Paul now.  No question.

Some may argue that 2005-2006 Phoenix was as good if not better. Marion had another stellar year.  Nash saw a spike in points and a few more games played.  Diaw was superb.  And if you were like me and drafted Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa hoping they would become the next Johnson/Richardson, you were pleasantly surprised.  But in '05-'06 the roster was deeper which is good for real life but bad for fantasy.  There were the Eddie House's, the Tim Thomas' and the James Jones' who were stealing minutes and stats from the main fantasy contributors.
The '04 starting five did everything for that team because the roster was thin (so there were plenty of stats to share) and they were all healthy for the most part: Joe Johnson (82 games), Shawn Marion (81 games), Amare Stoudemire (80 games), Quentin Richardson (79 games) and Steve Nash (75).  Also, fantasy stats aside, Amare, Joey J, and Q-Rich were really something else with the way they jacked up shots and poured in points.  Diaw, Bell, and Barbosa could go stretches where they looked like Leonardo DiCaprio playing basketball on heroin.

By 2005, Amare was nursing a knee, Joe Johnson was an All-Star in Atlanta, and Q-Rich was beginning his new career as a bouncer for the traveling NY Jerry Springer Knickerbocker show. It was the end of an era (sorta). We continue to follow Willy Wonka to the Fantasy Factory but we only got one year with the original five.

When they were together they were the greatest Fantasy Factory of all time.

Musings and Ponderings

Just a few quick hitters:

1) I feel like I've read this somewhere else because I can't be the first one to notice this, but can't remember reading it before.....but, with the big homeless guy beard, doesn't Randy Moss look like a skinny Kimbo Slice now? (Note: the picture below was taken in early October)

2) You know how every single NFL helmet is made by Riddell? And it's been that way for as long as you can remember? Do you ever remember seeing a) any other product made by Riddell, or b) any Riddell commercials? That's seems a little odd. I mean, the exclusive manufacturer of the most prominent piece of equipment in the most prominent sport in the country isn't looking to branch out? Maybe they have stuff all over the place and I don't know it. Or maybe they make shit that's much less visible like shoulder pads, goalposts and cheerleader pasties. Just sort of hit me tonight that it's bizarre not to Riddell gear anywhere else.

Fantasy Football is Stupid. There. I Said It.

Ryan Moats. Ryan Fucking Moats. Last week, I had to start Ryan Moats at RB because he was my best available option. Thanks, Steve Slaton (pictured above fumbling and boofing me at the same time). And guess what? Moats actually performed pretty well, and was my most productive RB for the week. That, in a nutshell, is why fantasy football is stupid.

Now, you could argue that I'm a crappy fantasy football owner if Ryan Moats is my best option at RB on a given week. And you'd be right. I have never done well in fantasy football leagues. I don't have a team I root for (I'm a Knicks and Yankees fan), I never played the game at any level, and I grew up in a place (Westchester County, NY) where the closest decent college football team was probably 5 hours away. So, I just don't care that much about football, don't know as much about it, and don't do my homework with the same gusto as other sports.

That doesn't mean that fantasy football is not a drastically inferior fantasy product. At their core, fantasy sports are great because it allows a bunch of dudes to determine who knows the most about a given sport in a given year based on statistical output. If you win, you can talk shit. In fact, you can talk shit to anyone you finish above because you outsmarted that particular person. The further we stray from that formula the worse the game becomes. So, why does football suck? Three reasons: 1) Injuries, 2) Head-to-to head scoring, and 3) the secretary at your office probably has a fantasy football team. All of these factors create randomness and impurity in the system that makes it difficult to figure out who has the smartiest pants.

The first is obviously a problem with all sports. However, in baseball or basketball, the injuries tend to be recurring, tend to be the same types of injuries, and tend to happen to the same guys year in and year out. Elton Brand will get hurt. Kevin Martin will get hurt. Rich Harden should never be drafted under any circumstances. We know these things. We understand these things. We can draft accordingly. Football is totally random. There are twenty-two 250+ pound men acting as human missiles every time the ball is snapped. Every single player is a candidate to have a life-altering injury on every single play. Often, when it happens, he won't even see it coming. When it does, fantasy owners are left scrambling. Eventually, Samkon Gado becomes a legitimate fantasy player even though nobody had ever heard of him before week 7.

This almost never happens in basketball, where the universe of ownable players is limited to about 300 guys. Maybe some of these guys will be more or less valuable as the season wears on because of an injury to somebody in front of them. But rarely, if ever, does a player who nobody has ever heard of before in their life get catapulted into a position where he can have a fantasy impact just because of an injury.

Head-to-head scoring is stupid too. If you use this for your basketball or baseball league, you're a wanker. Period. The idea is to create the most balanced team that performs the best over the course of the whole season. Fantasy championships shouldn't be decided because the Colts are 12-1 or because the Cardinals play in a joke of a division. The team that scores the most points, measured by important statistical categories like yards and TDs, should never miss the playoffs. But this happens all the time. More often than not, the best team in a head-to-head league doesn't win the title. What's the point in that? Again, it defeats the underlying point of fantasy sports, which is to prove you're smarter than your friends.

The last point might makes me seem like a misogynist. It's not that the secretary at work plays fantasy football, it's that too many random people who don't give two shits about sports play fantasy football. This is an entropy machine for fantasy purposes. Absentee owners and clueless owners affect the competitive balance in a league. Once a year, these people draft players from their favorite teams in nonsensical places, get duped into a stupid trade, leave injured players in their lineup or drop a signficant chip in Week 1 because they don't know what they're doing. Somebody else benefits, and the whole system is ruined.

If it weren't for the fact that fantasy football keeps me in touch with some buddies from college I wouldn't otherwise talk to, I would have quit 3 years ago. And that's why fantasy football is inferior. It's a social phenomenon or cultural fad made for water cooler talk and The Yahoo! Smack Talk Message Board brought to you by Diet Dr. Pepper more than anything; it's not for the hard-core dorkatoligists like me. I learned to live without slap bracelets and Urkel, and I'm pretty sure I could do without fantasy football. Then maybe I could use my brain power on something other than Ryan Moats.

The Contract year theory

Erick Dampier has recently put together a nice string of games for the Cuban Mavericks leading to some inevitable adds in my fantasy leagues, and prompting me to ask my girlfriend:

 “Is Erick Dampier in a contract year?” 

She responded “no, he’s signed through 2011, Sean. Can I get you another beer to help you wash down those wings I made for you?  You really shouldn’t get up from the couch, otherwise you may miss another irreverent quip by Wes from the Ruins.” 

Of course, she didn’t really say that – in reality, she pretended not to hear me as I soliloquized for 20 minutes about Dampier’s ridiculous 2003-2004 campaign where he averaged 12 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks a game for the Golden State Warriors.  In my opinion it was one of the more egregious “I need me some money so I’m going to actually try this year” seasons.  Look, don’t hate the player, hate the game.  Erick Dampier is no dummy – he is a man, he is a player, he is a humanitarian. He is also in hundreds of pictures like the one above.

For some guys money is the necessary/driving incentive to play to their potential.  Bill Simmons’ recent book “The Book of Basketball” quotes   Holy Cross legend Tommy Heinsohn’s take on the issue:

I’ve seen this happen so many times …It’s not just the length of the contract that hurts, it’s the length of the guaranteed lifestyle.  Unless you’re talking about athletes who are truly dedicated to the game, the only time these guys bear down is when their security is threatened.

In fact, Simmons cites Dampier's 2003-2004 year as a textbook contract run.  Dampier was not the first and will not be the last to produce a statistical anomaly in a contract year.  As a result, a “contract year theory” has developed for fantasy drafting.  But does it work?

In the last five years, I have drafted a number of players a little bit ahead of their ADP because they were in a contract year.  Some turned out well, some didn’t.  See if you can spot the one’s that did not:

            Peja Stojakovic            2005 – 2006

            Andruw Jones              2007               

            Morris Peterson           2006 - 2007 

            Emeka Okafor             2007 – 2008

            Mark Teixeira              2008

           

Last year Shawn Marion turned in one of the more disappointing contract year seasons in recent memory.

Two years ago Baron Davis played 82 games in a contract year.  82 games!  Baron Davis!  What!?  Yup.  Look it up on espn or just google “historical oddities.”

So what do we make of all this? 

The contract year theory is an appealing concept.  But it’s like communism – nice in theory, but how can we fully embrace it when capitalism is so much better for screwing people over?  Really, the contract year theory is just not reliable.

To state the obvious, the contract year theory works for some players, doesn’t work for others. Unless you know the player personally and know that he is using the off season to work out like a mad man and shows up to camp ready to dominate, there is no way to predict success.

So the next time you hear some one say something like “Dude I’m totally high on Travis Outlaw this year!  He’s in a contract year!” you should laugh at him.  He’s basically saying “I have a system for playing roulette that works every time.”

But seriously … I like McGrady this year … he’s in a contract year.           

Where am I?

Are we seriously living in a world where JJ Redick is fantasy relevant?  After the former Dukie whiteboy  standout** played decently off the bench for the first two games of the season, Ron Jeremy inserted reDICK into the starting lineup (Read the last part of that sentence again - I had a blast writing it).  Redick has responded by averaging 16.5 PPG, 3+3PM, and 3 APG.  Not bad. I'll admit that his recent success means I am eating crow. However, don't get too excited. Rashard Lewis' return is imminent and Redick's reign will most likely end shortly after Lewis gets his legs.  I also think Lewis' return affects Ryan Anderson, but I have a hunch that Anderson will still get minutes and produce 3PMs

**Not to be confused with Christian Laettner, Cherokee Parks, Steve Wojciechowski, Bobby Hurley, Josh McRoberts, Danny Ferry, Shavlick Randolph, Mike Dunleavy, Greg Paulus, or Jon Scheyer a year from now.

PS -- High five to the guy holding the "ly gay" sign.  Tremendous work. Really, outstanding.

LBJ is a Super-Massive Fantasy Blackhole

To say that LeBron, arguably the world's greatest player, is a blackhole does not mean that he isn't talented and won't put up sick numbers. It only means that he is so massive that he sucks in all the talent that goes anywhere near him (even Shaq's fat ass, apparently...they should have had a "Shaq Versus" where he went up against a treadmill set to an 11-minute mile; he would have lost). The team is so dependent on James getting his, that the second and third wheels on the Cavs are not going to be fantasy forces. People seem to love Mo Williams and Anthony Parker and the like, but history shows that members of the Cavs backcourt rarely moonlight as meaningful fantasy contrubtors in any category other than 3PTM. This makes sense when you watch the Cavs play. LeBron seems to be constantly going one-on-four and Mike Brown's offense consists of the following three plays: 1) LeBron drives and either dunks on someone's face, humiliating them forever, or is fouled, where he inexplicably bricks one of his FTs, 2) LeBron takes a step-back 3, or 3) LeBron drives, sucks the defense to him and hits a teammate for an open 3. Here's a look at the Cavs' non-James leaders since the 2004-2005 season.

2004-2005
POINTS: Big Z, 16.9 PPG, 31st in the league
REBOUNDS: Drew Gooden, 9.2 RPG, 13th in the league

ASSISTS: Jeff McInnis, 5.1 APG, 23rd in the league

STEALS: Nobody in the top 50

BLOCKS: Big Z, 2.12 BPG, 8th in the league

2005-2006
POINTS: Big Z, 15.6 PPG, 46th in the league
REBOUNDS: Drew Gooden, 8.4 RPG, 18th in the league
ASSISTS: Eric Snow, 4.2 APG, 37th in the league
STEALS: Nobody in the top 50
BLOCKS: Big Z, 1.74 BPG, 16th in the league

2006-2007
POINTS: Larry Hughes, 14.9 PPG, 49th in the league
REBOUNDS: Drew Gooden, 8.5 RPG, 15th in the league
ASSISTS: Eric Snow, 4.0 APG, 37th in the league
STEALS: Larry Hughes, 1.27 SPG, 25th in the league
BLOCKS: Big Z, 1.26 BPG, 25th in the league

2007-2008
POINTS: Nobody in the top 50
REBOUNDS: Ben Wallace, 9.3 RPG, 16th in the league
ASSISTS: Nobody in the top 50
STEALS: Ben Wallace, 1.22 SPG, 33rd in the league
BLOCKS: Big Z, 1.64 BPG, 13th in the league

2008-2009

POINTS: Mo Williams, 17.8 PPG, 32nd in the league
REBOUNDS: Anderson Varejao, 7.2 RPG, 31st in the league
ASSISTS: Mo Williams, 4.1 APG, 40th in the league
STEALS: Nobody in the top 50
BLOCKS: Anderson Varejao, 0.81 BPG, 38th in the league.

Note: Big Z only played 65 games last year.

Nobody who has played either Guard spot for the Cavs has been in the top 25 in any cumulative category, other than Larry Hughes (25th in steals) and Jeff McInnis (!!!!!). Jesus. The only players who seem to have any discernible impact are rebounding specialists with limited offensive games like Ben Wallace, Drew Gooden, and Anderson Varejao and my former mainest man, Big Z. However, Big Z's numbers have been slipping in recent seasons. Last year, he did a lot of what Mo Williams and Delonte West did: sit outside and knock down open jumpers. Even more disconcerting, the Cavs have Shaq now, so Ilgauskas is getting limited minutes as a back-up Center.

So, I'd say avoid the Cavs like the plague if you don't have LeBron. Sure, Mo will get some points and hit some 3's, but that's it. He won't get steals, he won't get many assists. Shaq was drafted after Roy Hibbert in one draft I did, and nobody batted an eye. He's old, looks fat, will probably not play much in back-to-backs, might take 20 games off in January and February, and is currently averaging 9.0 PPG and only 24.8 MPG. 'Nuf said. You're better off looking to crappy teams with a bunch of gunners like the Grizzlies or the Clippers if you want to go anywhere in your fantasy league. The Cavs have the best player in the world and will likely go deep in the playoffs, but they make for a shitty fantasy team.

More NBA minute trends

Sorry for the late post today but I'm still reeling from an utterly brilliant pitching performance by Cliff Lee last night. My long-time knock on Lee for fantasy purposes is that he doesn't strike out enough guys. Last night real life Lee produced some pretty awkward swings from a lineup full of professional hitters - some of his curveballs were just silly.

Anyway, we had quite a bit of NBA action last night.  Some observations:

Terrence Williams - 31 minutes of action in a fairly tight game.  The story on this guy is that he is super active which usually translates into good reb/stl/blk stats.  I still think Courtney Lee is the SG/SF to own in NJ.  Lee struggled with his shooting last night and I think he'll bounce back.
Anthony Randolph - Randolph, everyone's favorite "sleeper" going into this season, played only 9 minutes against the Houston Rockets on Wednesday.  It's not clear if this was injury related (back problems). He was still active blocking a shot and inexplicably making a three.  Be patient here.
Danilo Gallinari - Is el gallo the next Dirk Nowitzki or the next Jason Kapono? In 28 minutes the rooster took 14 shots.  13 of those shots were 3 pointers.  He made 7.  Other than that, Danilo did next to nothing.  Not a good sign for Knicks fans or Danilo fantasy owners (unless your league's only stat is 3PMs).  Which reminds me of...

Rasual Butler (pictured above with my nemesis Mo Pete) v. Al Thornton - La Salle legend Rasual Butler (apologies to Lionel Simmons) displayed an unusual (for him) stat line last night in 31 minutes of action. Butler is exclusively a three point shooter.  However, on Wednesday for the first time in his career Butler dished out more than two assists (he had 4). He also had one rebound.  Thornton still played 24 minutes. I think Thornton is still the guy to own in Clipperland until BG returns.
Thabo Sefalosha v. James Harden - I noticed some James Harden fantasy buzz coming into the season.  And frankly I bought it.  Then I learned on Wednesday that the Thunder signed Thabo to a 4 year extension and now I love that little multi-lingual Swiss SG/SF shot-blocking machine as a fantasy play.  Last night Sefolosha played 34 minutes, Harden played 13.  I think this will be the norm this year.
Boris Diaw - According to yahoo sports, Diaw took 7 shots (made 3), grabbed 2 boards, dished out 2 assists, turned the ball over twice, and committed 3 fouls in only 53 seconds of playing time. Amazing. But seriously, if you drafted a Bobcat you're sick to your stomach right now. The Celtics are very good defensive team but...59 points?  ouch.

Observations from last night

Right now is a very important time for fantasy basketball.  After the first few games, FA steals can occur because you can see who is getting minutes.  For example, two years ago Mike Dunleavy played 45 mins in the first game of the season.  I picked him up and he went on to have a career year.  So pay close attention to who is getting the most minutes right now - those guys can be solid fantasy contributors.  Here's what I saw last night:

Randy Foye
The Wiz may be employing the hot-hand theory with regard to Foye and Miller.  This is always a dangerous position to be in.  Last night Foye played 30 mins and hit some big shots in the fourth quarter.  Miller is still ownable but keep your eye on the situation. The good news for Wiz fans:  Deshawn Stevenson is no longer playing 40 minutes a game.

Anthony Parker
He played 40 minutes.  I don't care who you are, you're going to accumulate some stats when you play 40 minutes in an NBA game.  Anthony Parker is already pretty efficient - he's the silent contributor type.  The amount of minutes he played on Tuesday bodes well for Parker owners. 

Aaron Brooks
41 minutes - 17 FGA.  Go out and get him if he's available.  He is the top dog running that offense. Yeah, I know, the Rocket offense is not very good.  But Brooks has potential to be a Shareef Abdur-Rahim all-star.  As Mike detailed a few days ago, SAR all-stars should not be ignored.

Taking a Wiz

The Wizards center situation seems like a dead-end for fantasy production. As it stands right now, the path finally seems clear for Brandon Haywood to begin getting regular minutes as a starter. It would look like he's the best option, at first glance. But honestly, do we trust a dude who a) loses his starting job to a guy who looks like he belongs at the Poetry Slam at your local coffee shop and has a very serious heart condition, b) then gets in fights with that same guy and c) has to resort to hair pulling? No, we don't.

Andray Blatche has been tantalizing fantasy owners for two years now with the potential to put up Josh Smith-esque numbers. With Antawn Jamison out for the first few weeks of the season, Blatche is going to get some run as the starting PF for the Wiz. His per 36 stats last year were fantastic. 47%, 70% FT, 15.1 points, 8.0 reb., 2.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.6 blocks. In his 36 starts last year, Blatche gave us the following line: 28 MPG, 47.4% FG, 71.6% FT, 11.8 points, 6.3 reb., 2.1 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocks. Good numbers that are likely to go up, considering Blatche's age (he turned 23 this August).

Haywood is a free agent after this year, and with Blatche and second-year man Javale McGee (also worth keeping an eye on as the season wears on) on their roster, I think the Wiz will want to see what they have in the young guys rather than sticking with Haywood. I suspect Blatche will impress early in Jamison's absence and ultimately snatch a lot of Haywood's minutes as the year progresses, if not the starting job. In a league that continues to put a premium on athleticism, Blatche is a potential goldmine. At the very least, Andray will likely get a lot of minutes off the bench as an energy guy and provide fantasy GMs with solid back-end production (not the kind I produce after a big coffee in the work bathroom at 9:47 EST like clockwork every morning). But I expect big things from Blatche this year, and so should you. As a vote of confidence, I'm starting him tonight in place of "limited role" Marcus "Dainty Ankles" Camby. Snatch him. Stash him. Look really smart.

UPDATE: Um. Apparently the incomparable Fabricio Oberto got the start tonight alongside Haywood. I don't think this changes anything. It still stands to reason that Blatche's talent will ultimately shine through. Also, Flip Saunders is a bad coach.

UPDATED UPDATE: Apparently Etan Thomas has published a book of poems. Unfortunately, it's out of stock on Amazon. It's not just a joke. Wow.

Alex Smith - your name is still too bland for the NFL

Former number one pick Alexander Smith threw for 206 yards with 3 TD's in the second half on Sunday against the Texans.  Shortly after that virtuoso performance, the Niners announced that Smith is their guy.  If you have a roster spot open, I'd snatch him up. If you aren't sure who to drop, drop the guy who has any of the following abbreviations next to his name: BUF, CLE, OAK

This is really the perfect situation for Smith. Expectations usually surround a number 1 pick and we tend to dismiss a guy if he doesn't produce right away.  Smith probably got caught up in trying to meet those expectations and he kinda failed.  It wasn't his fault, of course.  Who were his WR's in '05?  Arnaz Battle?  Unmotivated Antonio Bryant?

Presently, SF has weapons - a legit playmaker named Michael Crabcakes (mmmmm crab cakes) and an all-around tough guy named Frank Gore.  It's also pretty clear that Smith and Vernon Davis are on the same page.  Davis was the recipient of all 3 teeds (check to see if he's owned in your league as well). More importantly, unlike before, Smith has nothing to lose.  Following Shaun Hill is like following Doug Williams at an NFL roast - seriously, you can't lose.

Smith's mindset is probably better than it's ever been.  Sure, last Sunday may have been just a "blip"  - but there's no harm in stashing him away for a spot start when your no. 1 QB is on a bye.

Blake Griffin Owners: Invest Heavily in Al Thornton and Petroleum Jelly

With the news that Blake Griffin has fallen prey to the Clipper Curse, and will miss 6 weeks with a stress fracture in his kneecap (ouch), Al Thornton is likely to see an increase in minutes. A guy who is capable of scoring and getting a block and a steal per game, Thornton was virtually untouchable given the Clippers frontcourt logjam. Now, he's ownable and borderline startable in most leagues.

Shareef Wears Fierce Shorts

Fantasy Basketball is a weird game. In baseball, having a good hitter in a bad line-up means that the hitter is likely to see fewer good pitches, hit with fewer guys on base and generally be a drain (See: Holliday, Matt with the A’s). In football, a good RB on a team with a crappy passing offense will be stymied every Sunday when opposing defenses put 14 guys in the box (See: Jackson, Stephen), and erstwhile fantasy stud wideouts will become virtually invisible if they have a noodle-arm throwing them the ball (See: Smith, Steve).

But, again, Fantasy Basketball is a weird game. Even the most offensively inept teams will put up about 94 points a game. Somebody has to put up stats. Teams will miss shots, so there will be rebounds. For years, Shareef Abdur-Rahim put up about 20 and 9 on teams that Bedford, NY’s St. Patrick’s CYO 7th Grade Boys team could have beaten (they would have fallen prey to our 28-minutes-of-hell full court press, just like the Mighty Don Bosco).

These players tend to be undervalued because they don’t get as much hype and their teams suck, so they’re not on SportsCenter much. As our friend JR Rider pointed out, money is green everywhere (unless you’ve been out of the US, but I’m pretty sure the State Department wouldn’t give Rider a passport). Well, buckets are worth two points everywhere, too (except for that pesky three-pointer thing). Fielding a winning basketball team is, at least in part, about mining these nuggets of gold out of piles of shit. Without further ado, your 2009-2010 Shareef Abdur-Rahim All-Stars:

Jason Thompson (SAC: SF, PF): I’m not going to waste time talking about Kevin Martin. I had him in his breakout year and loved him, but I think he’s a bit overrated now. When he first blew up, his %’s were usually pretty excellent for the amount he was scoring and the position he played. Now, his FG% is way down because he takes too many shots, so he’s a one category player. Two, if you count ankle sprains. Thompson should put up good numbers on a team that stinks. He was covered by Sean in his Sleepers post, and I agree with everything he said.

Spencer Hawes: (SAC: C): Remember, this is fantasy, not real life. In real life, Hawes is a total stiff. In fact, when he and Aaron Gray matched up in college, it was like a Jim McIlvaine Impersonator Contest. That being said, Sacramento’s frontline is incredibly thin. Jon Brockman, Sean “Tight Shorts” May (all apologies to the original tight shorts, Mike Sweetney), and Kenny Thomas aren’t exactly going to compete with Hawes or Thompson for serious minutes. With the Mr. Miyagi of stiffs, Brad Miller, out of the picture, I think that Hawes can be a cheap source of big man stats. His per 36 stats last year were pretty good, and he should see a spike in minutes this year. I think we can expect: 47% FG, 67% FT, 13.2 pts, 8.8 reb, 2.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.4 blocks.

Andrew Bogut: (MIL: C): The Bucks are going to be terrible. Bogut is an injury risk and is a terrible free throw shooter (putting him in a class with 75% of NBA centers). That being said, you can get a double-double and 1.5 blocks in the 9th round. Not a bad haul.

Hakim Warrick: (MIL: SF, PF): Basically, I love the Bucks front court for the same reasons I like the Kings’. Joe Alexander is hurt. The SF position is a competition between Carlos Delfino and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Warrick should put up stats with the increase in minutes he is bound to see. I think he’s good for 14 and 7. A block and a steal, with reasonable %’s are probably in there too. You can do a lot worse in the 14th round. He’s a guy you draft for depth so you can make a trade down the line.

Zach Randolph: (MEM: PF, C): I’m aware of the reasons Zach Randolph sucks. I’m a Knicks fan. But he’s going late in drafts, for a guy who 1) has C eligibility and 2) is an almost guaranteed 20 and 10. If you nab a good shot-blocking big, you can pair him with Z-Bo and have a nasty frontcourt. Think Marcus Camby in the 5th and Randolph in the 7th.

Corey Brewer: (MIN: SG, SF): A guy who has proven himself to be offensively challenged, I like Brewer to turn it around this year. He’s been putting up pretty good numbers in the preseason (I know, I know), and the T-Wolves swingman spot is less than stellar. I don’t see them playing Flynn and Sessions together, despite what David Kahn said about Flynn and Rubio after the draft. That’s stupid. Almost as stupid as drafting Johnny Flynn right after Ricky Rubio. Brewer has been scoring about 15 points a game in the preseason. And with the exception of an aberrant 0 board game, been grabbing a good number of boards. He’s also been hitting a trey or two a game, at the expense of his FG%. Plus, he’s long and athletic on a team dying for someone who can play defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets up around 1.8 steals a game.

LT is weak sauce

LaDainian Tomlinson had a number of red zone opportunities on Sunday against the pathetic Kansas City Chiefs.  LT failed to score. What the eff?  If number 21 cannot get it done against Kansas City, I don't think he'll ever get it done (except for maybe against the Bills).  I drafted the dude before Chris Johnson - I am not happy with that decision.  It's not my fault. It's not my fault. It's not my fault. It's not my fault. 
 It's LT's fault.   Therefore, I have hired the ambulance driver from Madden '92 to take out LT and the rest of the Charger O-line.

Reconnecting with Agent Zero

Do you remember Gilbert Arenas? I do.

He who yells "Hibachi" won me a very competitive fantasy league back  in 2005-2006.  From 2004-2007, Arenas was a no-brainer first round pick.  A guy you didn't have to worry about all season. During that period ('04-'07), you'd be hard pressed to find a more productive point guard. In that three year stretch he averaged 27.8 points, 5.7 assists, 2.6 threes, and 1.9 steals per game.  He also shot appx 82.4% from the charity stripe and got to the line 9.2 times a game (which was huge for me in '05 as I had a young FT-brick machine named Dwight Howard on my team that year).

Well after taking nearly two full seasons off nursing "a knee," he's back.  It's weird.  If you're like me, you kind of forgot about Agent Zero.  We've been chasing around the next best thing: the Devin Harris', the Brandon Roy's.  And rightly so - we had to move on.  Two recent drafts I was involved in saw Gil drafted at 42 and 43 overall near the likes of Andris Biedrins, Al Horford and Rudy Gay. One writer recently stated that you can make a case for Arenas' ADP being a steal or a reach.  After thinking about this I'm leaning toward a steal.

Arenas is only 27 years old.  He is a tremendous shooter which doesn't just go away.  He plays on a team with some decent weapons: Jamison, Butler, Miller, Foye.  Moreover, he has to play (even if he believes he doesn't have to give interviews).  He makes an awful lot of money and he's signed through 2014!! Wow. Read: He's not going anywhere.

As long as the knee holds up, I think we're all going to be kicking ourselves for not drafting Gilbert Arenas when he was available in the 3rd round.

Magic eightball:

22.1 ppg, 4.1 reb, 6.9 apg, 2.1 3pt, 1.6 stl, .2 Blk, 3.2 TO's, 42%(FG) 82% (FT)

Jonathan Stewart (Car) v. Steve Smith (NYG)

Mr. Stewart and Mr. Smith are competing for my flex spot.  At this moment, I am going with Stewart.

I love Smith because of his PPR.  However, he was borderline nonexistent last weekend against the Saints.  Meanwhile, Nicks and Manningham are beginning to get more looks each week.  I think "the year of the other Steve Smith" is not really going to be a year - it will end up being four weeks.

As for Stewart, he and D'Angelo Barksdale Williams split carries of course.  But the Panthers are playing the Bills.  The Buffalo Bills...as in the Buffalo "we give up 210 yards of rushing to Thomas Jones!" Bills...


I have 3.5 hours to change my mind.  

Isaiah "JR" Rider

Apparently, Rider would like to come back to the NBA.

“Money is green everywhere,” he said. “I have a gift and I feel like I got to do what I got to do. God gave me a gift, and I feel like I should be able to play basketball for as long as I possibly can.”  See the full article here

Fantasy spin?  Sure. Look his name up in the player pool if it ever gets there (it won't), and make an Isaiah Rider "money is green everywhere" joke in your fantasy league message boards.  That is the only fantasy relevance he will have.

Remember this?
 
The ol' East bay funk dunk. When it happened by the way, 13 year old Sean lost his shit.  Nowadays, I'm pretty sure Josh Smith does this dunk during games...in traffic. Ugh - I'm old.

Pau before the sweaty hair

Reason why this picture is funny:  Pau Gasol's little boy haircut.

Reason why this picture is old: Juwan Howard appears to be actually playing in this game.

Reason why this picture is disturbing:  We now know what Pau Gasol's "Oh face" looks like.