Saturday, October 24, 2009

Sleeper picks

How do you define a "sleeper?"  This is a fair question these days as the fantasy basketball season rapidly approaches. This past month, fantasy experts have weighed in on the always debated sleeper pick conversation for the upcoming season.  This year if you're like me, you are probably surprised to see some familiar names labeled as sleepers - Examples:

Leandro Barbosa
Shawn Marion
Elton Brand
Russell Westbrook
Manu Ginobli
Baron Davis

Four of the above six players are former all-stars.  How can they be labeled as sleepers?  The players above may be undervalued based on standard projections.  But are they sleepers?

In my opinion no.  They're not.  To be sure, a sleeper is a player previously off the radar that will have their FIRST breakout fantasy year. See, e.g., Chris Duhon-'08-'09; Nene-'08-'09.   It is not someone who was at one time a round 1 pick and is now projected in later rounds because of a down year- typically it's a first or second year guy, or a longtime back up that finally gets his opportunity. Having made this clarification, here are my "sleepers" for '09-'10. 

Jason Thompson - Kings PF - i see 16 and 10 with good averages as a conservative projection.
Lou Williams - 76ers PG - the sixers are running a princeton offense so I don't see a lot of assist numbers from Sweet Lou this year.  But I do like his upside - he'll score and will be a good source of 3's.
Demar DeRozan - Raptors SG/SF - I like him in the Anthony Parker role this year with better "back end" stats as I call them - steals and blocks.
Courtney Lee & Yi Jianlian - Nets SG, SF - Devin Harris and Brook Lopez will need some help. I think Lee will get his opportunity.  Yi has actually looked pretty good this preseason.
Danilo Gallinari - Knicks SF - el gallo was the best pure shooter Mike D'Antoni had ever seen, until the preseason started and Danilo had hands in his face.  That said, if you draft the kid be patient.  I think come january/february (when the playoffs are out of the picture) we will see some very impressive stats from the rooster.
Channing Frye - Suns PF/C - intriguing because he will get his opportunity.  Just don't expect many rebounds or blocks.
Brandon Jennings - Bucks PG - the buzz is that he has CP3-type speed and has great court vision.  I expect him to produce numbers akin to Russell Westbrook last year: some points, assists, and above average steals, high turnovers, ghastly shooting percentages.  He will surprise people though.  

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