The Contract year theory

Erick Dampier has recently put together a nice string of games for the Cuban Mavericks leading to some inevitable adds in my fantasy leagues, and prompting me to ask my girlfriend:

 “Is Erick Dampier in a contract year?” 

She responded “no, he’s signed through 2011, Sean. Can I get you another beer to help you wash down those wings I made for you?  You really shouldn’t get up from the couch, otherwise you may miss another irreverent quip by Wes from the Ruins.” 

Of course, she didn’t really say that – in reality, she pretended not to hear me as I soliloquized for 20 minutes about Dampier’s ridiculous 2003-2004 campaign where he averaged 12 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks a game for the Golden State Warriors.  In my opinion it was one of the more egregious “I need me some money so I’m going to actually try this year” seasons.  Look, don’t hate the player, hate the game.  Erick Dampier is no dummy – he is a man, he is a player, he is a humanitarian. He is also in hundreds of pictures like the one above.

For some guys money is the necessary/driving incentive to play to their potential.  Bill Simmons’ recent book “The Book of Basketball” quotes   Holy Cross legend Tommy Heinsohn’s take on the issue:

I’ve seen this happen so many times …It’s not just the length of the contract that hurts, it’s the length of the guaranteed lifestyle.  Unless you’re talking about athletes who are truly dedicated to the game, the only time these guys bear down is when their security is threatened.

In fact, Simmons cites Dampier's 2003-2004 year as a textbook contract run.  Dampier was not the first and will not be the last to produce a statistical anomaly in a contract year.  As a result, a “contract year theory” has developed for fantasy drafting.  But does it work?

In the last five years, I have drafted a number of players a little bit ahead of their ADP because they were in a contract year.  Some turned out well, some didn’t.  See if you can spot the one’s that did not:

            Peja Stojakovic            2005 – 2006

            Andruw Jones              2007               

            Morris Peterson           2006 - 2007 

            Emeka Okafor             2007 – 2008

            Mark Teixeira              2008

           

Last year Shawn Marion turned in one of the more disappointing contract year seasons in recent memory.

Two years ago Baron Davis played 82 games in a contract year.  82 games!  Baron Davis!  What!?  Yup.  Look it up on espn or just google “historical oddities.”

So what do we make of all this? 

The contract year theory is an appealing concept.  But it’s like communism – nice in theory, but how can we fully embrace it when capitalism is so much better for screwing people over?  Really, the contract year theory is just not reliable.

To state the obvious, the contract year theory works for some players, doesn’t work for others. Unless you know the player personally and know that he is using the off season to work out like a mad man and shows up to camp ready to dominate, there is no way to predict success.

So the next time you hear some one say something like “Dude I’m totally high on Travis Outlaw this year!  He’s in a contract year!” you should laugh at him.  He’s basically saying “I have a system for playing roulette that works every time.”

But seriously … I like McGrady this year … he’s in a contract year.