"The delicate choreography of negotiation"

This (hopefully) monthly post is named after a message board post Fake League Blogger Mike wrote in our Vandalay Industries keeper league once.  In defending a low ball offer (probably something along the lines of Nate McLouth for CC Sabathia) Mike explained to us that trade talks are a delicate choreography.

In other words, you don't know what the other owner is looking for - you don't know for sure how frustrated the other owner is with his second round draft pick. Why not send an offer for someone who is underperforming?  Why not send out a few "feelers" and begin the dance that is the back and forth of trade talks?
 
I'm dancing with the owners of:

Caron Butler  - In one of my leagues I recently traded Derrick Rose and Andray Blatche for Butler and Rasheed Wallace.   In another league I drafted Butler - I was publicly shopping him immediately after the draft, but I can't now.  He hasn't exactly been lighting it up and won't command much value in return.  Butler's current rank is somewhere in the 160 range because he's shooting 39% from the floor and he has only 8 assists in 9 games (he had 30 assists by that time last year).  Although Butler's career numbers are better when Jamison and/or Arenas are out, I think he'll turn in another solid season, one similar to his '06 campaign. He just needs to get off the mountain dew wagon again.  So if you drafted him - keep him because if you trade him now, you're getting the worst of him.  If you trade for him, you're getting the best of him.

Russell Westbrook - some owners really wig out when they see a line like the one Westbrook posted on Nov. 11 vs. the Clips:  2 points (1-11), 3 assists, 2 TO's less than a week after he dropped 33 points and 7 assists on the Rockets.  Some owners aren't used to the rotisserie format or simply don't have much patience for a guy who turns the ball over 9 times in a game.  Chances are the guy who owns Russell Westbrook in your league is pissing and moaning over his inconsistency.  In which case, throw out a feeler.  Westbrook is a great source of steals an assists.  If you can deal with the poor shooting percentages and turnovers - the rest of his production in total will be above average for the year.

David West -  Foul trouble has plagued West.  That and the fact that Okafor seems to clean up the glass pretty nicely.  He's also coming off one of the worst games of his career.  So I'm buying low.  I find it hard to believe that a guy who average 20 points a game for two straight seasons all of sudden forgot how to get it done.  I think the rebounds and blocks will take a slight hit but that he'll still post numbers good numbers. Lowball West's owner (I mean initiate the dance).

Stephen Jackson - I wrote about this briefly a few days ago.  Many people believe Jackson's numbers were the product of Golden State's system.  I disagree.  I think he's going to get even more touches in Charlotte than he did in GS.  Why? Because he's the best offensive player the Charlotte Bobcats organization has ever had.  Think about that for a second.  If the Jackson owner in your league is some kind of Hollingerhead and the kind of guy who studies Nellie Ball - take advantage of this person. 


Who am I selling?

Brandon Jennings - Controversial, I know.  I love this guy.  The fact that the Knicks drafted Jordan Hill over him  has taken years off of my life.  I watched his 55 point game the other night on NBAtv. That third quarter was silly. And you know what - he backed up that performance with a 19 point, 8 assist game against the Nets.  I mean, the kid is seriously talented. But it's a long season. Eventually, teams will figure out how to defend him, he'll get fatigued, he'll struggle.  Right now, he can command some serious value. 

Derrick Rose -  As mentioned above, I traded him recently.  A point guard who doesn't shoot threes is a liability on your roster. Moreover, his assist totals have been pretty sub par so what's the point? Why is he a sell-high candidate?  Because oddly, people are fascinated with his potential and don't always understand the difference between real life basketball and fantasy basketball.  I like Rose in real life, but there is too much mediocrity in his fantasy game.  Trade him while this distinction is still lost on people and Rose's name carries weight.

Joakim Noah - He leads the league in boards.  He averages 12 points a game when he can't score any other way but dunking. He's ranked 26 overall.  He's playing 34 minutes a night. He has sex romps on the beach in St. Bart's.  The guy is on a roll. I have even forgiven him for making poor Bill Raftery feel uncomfortable by borderline humping Raftery's leg after winning the NCAA championship (video below):

I don't see how he keeps this up over the course of a full season, especially when Ty Thomas returns.  The minutes decrease, the boards should go down.  Trade him while he looks more like Moses Malone and less like Reggie Evans

Trevor Ariza - He is one of the leaders of 3PTMs and he fills the stat sheet.  Tons of steals. A good amount of assists. Above average scoring.  But he has probably done a number on your FG% which, unless you have an Amare or a Howard on your roster, has destroyed your chances at finishing at the top of the league.  He's what I call a "poison pill" - seek out a team that is doing well with percentages, trade Ariza to that guy, and watch that team plummet in the standings.